Oct 11, 2026 · 22 min
Listen from 11:01
Listen at 11:01
Sven Carlin maps stocks by risk and reward
10 Stocks To Buy! Value Investing Quadrant October 2026
The October quadrant offers a disciplined way to compare potential upside with the downside risk attached to individual stocks.
- 1The Value Investing Risk and Reward Quadrant compares stocks by potential reward and associated risk.
- 2The framework emphasizes downside exposure rather than treating upside potential as a standalone investment case.
- 3The update introduces a broad stock set including Tesla, ASML, Samsung, Verizon Wireless, and McDonald's.
Don't miss
Sven Carlin introduces the quadrant’s core visual logic: comparing potential reward with the downside risk required to pursue it.
The brief
Sven Carlin introduces the October 2026 update to his Value Investing Risk and Reward Quadrant, a visual framework for comparing investment opportunities.
The quadrant plots potential reward from low to high, making the central question not simply what a stock could return, but what risks accompany that outcome.
The discussion places familiar names such as Tesla, SpaceX, ASML, Samsung, and Nutrien within a broader value-investing comparison.
Additional examples include Charles Schwab, Verizon Wireless, Archer Daniels Midland, and McDonald's, showing the range of companies considered through the framework.
The episode’s defining idea is that upside only becomes meaningful when weighed against the potential downside attached to the investment.
What was said on this episode
46 statements · 24 positive · 12 negative · 6 mixed · 4 neutral
The S&P 500 is expensive and likely to return only 3–4% over time.
“the sap 500 that i think is pretty expensive now and will likely lead to a low return three four percent at best over time”
Listen at 2:01
Investors should not invest in Tesla and SpaceX.
“therefore not to invest”
Listen at 2:43
Tesla and SpaceX are not suitable value investments and may deliver zero returns.
“therefore not to invest and that's why we have them here at a zero return”
Listen at 2:43
ASML’s price-to-earnings ratio has risen to 60 from the 20s.
“The P ratio is now 60. It was in the 20s.”
Listen at 3:03
ASML’s valuation prices in repeated profit doubling for 15–20 years and is too risky.
“what's priced in is doubling, doubling for the next 15, 20 years. And that's a little bit too risky, a little bit too crazy to pay a P ratio of 60.”
Listen at 4:11
ASML is too expensive and likely to produce low long-term returns.
“Summa summarum, ASML is too expensive. likely to lead to a low return long term.”
Listen at 5:51
ASML is too expensive and likely to produce low long-term returns.
“ASML is too expensive. likely to lead to a low return long term.”
Listen at 5:53
Charles Schwab is likely to deliver market-like returns at market risk.
“I'll put schwab here as likely like market returns at market risk.”
Listen at 7:31
Archer Daniels Midland offers roughly market-like returns and risk at its current price.
“I'm also putting Archer Daniel Midlands here in market-like returns, market-like risks, perhaps a little bit better, but I need it cheaper.”
Listen at 8:07
Pepsi is unlikely to experience exceptional growth ahead.
“I don't see crazy growth ahead.”
Listen at 8:43
Pepsi is expected to provide market-like returns.
“I'll again put it with the market returns there.”
Listen at 8:51
A 5.2% risk-free Treasury return is becoming attractive.
“the risk-free rate of 5.2% is starting to get interested.”
Listen at 9:27
A 5.2% Treasury risk-free rate is becoming attractive.
“the risk-free rate of 5.2% is starting to get interested”
Listen at 9:27
10-year Treasuries offer lower risk than the market with a 5.2% return.
“I think it's lower risk than market, 5.2% return safety.”
Listen at 9:48
10-year Treasuries offer slightly better-than-market returns with low risk.
“Therefore, I would put it here a little bit better than market return with low risk.”
Listen at 9:55
Berkshire Hathaway is likely to grow 6% going forward.
“the likely growth of 6% going ahead”
Listen at 10:29
Berkshire is low risk and should deliver continued growth.
“Therefore, I said it is risky and not a... However, we can be sure that Berkshire will deliver”
Listen at 10:49
Berkshire Hathaway will grow at 6% with low risk.
“Let's say that they will keep on growing at 6%, low risk, fortress balance sheet.”
Listen at 11:01
Berkshire Hathaway offers very low risk and returns slightly above Treasuries.
“A little bit better than Treasuries, but not far from there. Very low risk”
Listen at 11:07
Weyerhaeuser could easily double if housing and lumber conditions recover.
“if housing reverts you're getting a dividend and significant upside when and if housing reverts this can easily double”
Listen at 11:59
Weyerhaeuser could double if EBITDA reaches $1.5 billion.
“this can easily double if they hit their 1.5 billion of ebitda”
Listen at 12:06
Verizon offers a 6% yield but is burdened by substantial debt.
“Verizon, 6% yield, but the company is burdened with a lot of debt.”
Listen at 13:04
Verizon may return 7–8% but carries high risk from its debt.
“So... Some growth there, okay, but I'm going to put it here at a high risk, let's say seven to 8% return.”
Listen at 13:10
Microsoft’s AI-driven growth is unsustainable, making its intrinsic value low.
“i don't believe the growth there is sustainable it's all engineering ai so for me microsoft is very low intrinsic value”
Listen at 15:08
Microsoft has low intrinsic value and belongs in the market-return basket.
“Microsoft is very low intrinsic value i've decided to put it back to where it was here at the market basket”
Listen at 15:15
Amazon remains cheap if it grows 20% and 15% going forward at a high multiple.
“if it grows 20% and 15% going forward with the high P ratio, it's still cheap.”
Listen at 15:37
Amazon offers about 7% returns with below-market risk.
“But that 7%, given the quality of the business, I have to put it as less than market risk and better return.”
Listen at 15:53
Amazon offers better returns with less risk than the market.
“that 7%, given the quality of the business, I have to put it as less than market risk and better return.”
Listen at 15:53
Netflix remains overvalued despite its stock decline.
“still overvalued”
Listen at 16:37
Netflix may return 7% but is riskier if growth slows.
“If the growth slowdowns riskier, so I'm going to put it at 7% but more risk.”
Listen at 16:42
Adyen could provide good returns but carries higher risk.
“So I'm transferring it to, yes, good returns possible, but higher risk.”
Listen at 17:06
Ahold’s valuation prices in perpetual 6% dividend growth and is somewhat excessive.
“what's priced in is 6% growth forever in the dividend. Expect a dividend of 3%, a little bit too much.”
Listen at 17:35
Ahold offers stable 6–7% returns through dividends and buybacks.
“So I'm putting it here, dividend buybacks, 6-7% stable returns.”
Listen at 17:45
Realty Income may return 10% with below-market risk.
“The return looks like 10% going forward. I would even say less than market risk.”
Listen at 17:56
Realty Income has lower-than-market risk and is interesting.
“I would even say less than market risk. So let's put it here as something interesting.”
Listen at 17:59
Copart is likely to return 7% with market-like risk.
“I'm just bringing it 7% likely return, 7-8 market-like risk.”
Listen at 18:23
Nomad Foods has high risk from debt but high potential returns.
“Now it's giving it back high risk because of the debt, but high potential for good returns.”
Listen at 18:36
Nomad Foods has high potential but debt warrants higher-risk classification.
“But given the debt, I think I might transfer it to the bets quadrant.”
Listen at 18:46
Meta could be attractively valued with only 8% growth assumptions.
“Then we have Meta, and if we go to the calculation, if we put just 8% growth”
Listen at 19:06
Meta offers returns approaching 10% despite slightly above-market risk.
“So I have to put it here as perhaps a little bit riskier than the market, but way better return getting into 10%.”
Listen at 19:31
Meta offers potentially 10% returns with slightly higher risk than the market.
“I have to put it here as perhaps a little bit riskier than the market, but way better return getting into 10%.”
Listen at 19:31
Chinese internet companies should deliver roughly 10% returns if sentiment rebounds.
“When it comes back, it should give a positive return. 10% likely return there as it rebounds.”
Listen at 19:50
MercadoLibre is exceeding Sven Carlin’s growth estimates.
“MercadoLibre, growth stock, they are beating my growth estimations fair and square.”
Listen at 20:24
MercadoLibre offers over 10% return potential at higher risk.
“So I'm keeping it here at plus 10% return at higher risk.”
Listen at 20:36
Kaspi is worth considering as a high-yield, high-growth portfolio holding.
“Caspi. just discussed perhaps high yield, high growth, everything, something to consider for that value pillar of your portfolio, I'm also considering it.”
Listen at 20:43
Sven Carlin is considering adding Kaspi to his diversified portfolio.
“contemplating still Caspi for my diversified portfolio.”
Listen at 21:12
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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