Oct 6, 2026 · 1h 1m
Tanker rates surge as dry bulk emerges as the next shipping trade
The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom)
The episode examines whether extraordinary tanker profits can survive rising vessel supply and why dry bulk may offer an earlier, less crowded cycle.
- 1Hormuz disruption, vessel scarcity, and longer routes have multiplied tanker ton-miles and pushed spot rates to extreme levels.
- 2High tanker valuations and incoming capacity make current earnings difficult to sustain, even as long-term owners may remain profitable.
- 3Capesize dry bulk offers a less mature cycle, while container shipping appears further advanced and burdened by its order book.
Don't miss
Mintzmyer explains why tanker rates can remain extraordinarily high while tanker stocks still offer disappointing future returns.
The brief
J Mintzmyer explains how Strait of Hormuz disruption, vessel scarcity, and longer routes transformed tanker economics, sending rates roughly 25 times higher in an unusually stressed market.
The key mechanism is ton-mile inflation: when owners avoid risky passages, ships travel farther and available capacity shrinks, while AIS data may obscure how many vessels can actually trade.
Mintzmyer argues the tanker surge cannot last indefinitely because ship prices are elevated and a growing order book is reversing the fleet tightness that supported recent earnings.
The conversation turns to dry bulk, especially Capesize shipping, where changing commodity routes and stronger rates suggest an earlier cycle without the same speculative excess.
The episode closes by contrasting tanker, dry-bulk, and container equities: current tanker profits are powerful, but prospective returns may be better where the cycle has further to run.
What was said on this episode
24 statements · 10 positive · 11 negative · 1 mixed · 2 neutral
A U.S. diesel export cut could severely disrupt non-U.S. global energy markets.
“if the U.S. would cut diesel exports at this juncture in the market, that risks throwing the global market, non-U.S., in the total pandemonium.”
Listen at 27:08
A prolonged U.S. diesel export ban would reduce product tanker rates.
“a longer term. ban of diesel exports, Jack, I think would be very bearish product tankers.”
Listen at 28:18
Tanker valuations are currently at their highest observed levels.
“valuations are at the highest point in tankers and specifics”
Listen at 28:59
Tanker ships are currently valued at historically high levels.
“The assets, the ships themselves are at the highest valuations we've really ever seen.”
Listen at 29:09
BWET could fall 50–75% or more if tanker rates decline rapidly.
“if you believe that the rates have peaked and coming down fast, then something like BWET is going to get absolutely smashed, like down 50%, down 75%, maybe even worse.”
Listen at 30:12
Current tanker rates are unsustainable.
“But the rates are absolutely unsustainable, Jack.”
Listen at 30:40
Tanker rates will remain at current levels for only days or weeks.
“I do not think we will see months. So somewhere between days and weeks on the rates.”
Listen at 31:01
A VLCC purchase requires roughly $150,000 daily rates for two-to-three years.
“you need to get about $150,000 a day or two to three years to justify the investment.”
Listen at 31:37
Tanker companies are generally a hold at current valuations.
“The companies are more of like a hold.”
Listen at 32:46
Selling middle-aged tankers near $250 million is preferable to buying them.
“I'd much rather be a seller in that transaction than a buyer for sure.”
Listen at 33:58
Investors should avoid Nordic American Tankers.
“One that I'll throw out here that, in our opinion, is a clear avoid is Nordic American Tankers, N.A.T.”
Listen at 34:45
Nordic American Tankers is substantially overvalued relative to peers.
“In our opinion, that was massively overextended from its peers.”
Listen at 34:51
Okeanos EcoTankers has the strongest management and results among covered tanker companies.
“By far, the most savvy management we've seen and the strongest results we've seen is from Okeanos EcoTankers.”
Listen at 35:34
Bullish investors should consider Okeanos EcoTankers.
“ECO would be the one I'd recommend for folks who are bullish.”
Listen at 36:09
TORM is the preferred product-tanker company.
“our favorite company there, Jack, is Torm, PLC.”
Listen at 36:27
Product tanker rates are likely to rise relative to crude tanker rates.
“We do think product tanker rates have some catching up to do.”
Listen at 36:44
Product tanker rates could rise even as crude tanker rates decline.
“We could even see a circumstance where crude tanker rates pull back and product tanker rates still go a little bit higher.”
Listen at 36:47
Hafnia’s purchase of TORM shares is strategically smart.
“I think it's really smart of Hafnia to gobble up those shares on the open market.”
Listen at 37:49
TORM’s fleet and corporate structure are preferred to Hafnia’s.
“We prefer the fleet and structure of TORM just a little bit more here.”
Listen at 37:54
TORM is currently a premium tanker company.
“I would say TORM is a premium company right now.”
Listen at 38:04
International Seaways is an excellent company.
“So INSW is a fantastic company.”
Listen at 38:49
Long-term tanker investors could achieve acceptable returns over five years.
“there's a case where you could do okay in five years.”
Listen at 46:49
DHT Holdings could reach $30 and pay large dividends if rates stay elevated.
“if the rates stay up for another three to six months, that stock might easily go to 30 and it might pay a couple of really fat dividends.”
Listen at 47:16
Tanker stocks will decline when tanker rates turn down.
“when the rates turn down, even if it's still a great company with good assets, that stock's going to suffer.”
Listen at 47:23
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.