Oct 21, 2026 · 23 min
Texas Democrats see an opening despite decades of Republican control
Texas: Democrats' eternal hope
Texas’s statewide races may be unusually competitive, but voter preferences and structural barriers still make a Democratic breakthrough difficult.
- 1Democrats see opportunity in the governor’s race and an open Senate contest shaped by Ken Paxton’s vulnerabilities.
- 2Latino voters, economic concerns, and Donald Trump’s standing could reshape Texas’s Republican coalition.
- 3Registration rules, limited absentee access, low turnout, and organizing costs remain formidable Democratic obstacles.
Don't miss
James Talarico’s effort to reach Republicans, appear on Fox News, and court Christian voters shows how Democrats are testing a broader Texas strategy.
The brief
Texas is drawing heavy campaign spending in its governor’s and Senate races, reviving Democratic hopes of breaking a statewide losing streak that dates to 1994.
The governor’s contest pits Republican Greg Abbott against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with property taxes, data centers, the economy, gas prices, and Abbott’s relationship with Donald Trump in play.
The episode examines whether weakening Republican support among Latino voters and Trump’s underwater approval ratings could make Texas more competitive than its partisan history suggests.
Ken Paxton’s scandals and an open Senate seat give Democrat James Talarico an unusually favorable opening, though Texas’s Republican lean remains the central obstacle.
Talarico is trying to expand the Democratic coalition through Republican outreach, Fox News appearances, Christian voters, and a moderate tone while attacking Paxton’s corruption record.
Even a strong Democratic campaign faces no online registration, no-excuse absentee voting, low midterm turnout, expensive statewide organizing, and mail-ballot complications.
What was said on this episode
25 statements · 8 positive · 13 negative · 4 neutral
Frisco’s population grew from about 6,000 in the early 1990s to over 250,000.
“Frisco, which is one of the, you know, booming cities in America, a place that's got over a quarter million residents. In the early '90s, only had about 6,000.”
Listen at 0:46
No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994.
“it's been since 1994 that a Democrat, any Democrat, has won for any statewide office here”
Listen at 2:11
Greg Abbott has remained broadly popular despite scandals or disappointments.
“Greg Abbott has been fairly popular, or at least impervious to any sort of either scandal or disappointment writ large from Texas voters.”
Listen at 3:51
AI data centers are increasingly being built in rural Texas.
“AI data centers are really starting to populate a lot of the rural areas here.”
Listen at 5:34
AI data centers are unpopular because they raise energy costs.
“They're unpopular because they're driving up energy costs in a lot of places.”
Listen at 5:41
Republican economic policies under Trump and Abbott have reduced voters’ ability to afford necessities.
“the way that Republicans like Trump and Greg Abbott have run the economy put voters in the position they are in now, which is they can't afford basic necessities.”
Listen at 6:33
Texas’s economy historically outperformed the national economy during downturns.
“Texas has been in this unique position where even when there's economic downturns. And specifically, I think of the Great Recession. Texas has been pretty impervious, not untouched, but the economy has done better than the rest of the country.”
Listen at 6:54
Latino voters are among the nation’s swing voters.
“these are the nation's swing voters”
Listen at 10:02
The current economy is not benefiting Latino voters who supported Trump.
“this economy is also not working for them”
Listen at 11:12
Donald Trump received 46% of Latino votes nationwide.
“Trump, you know, got 46% with Latinos nationwide.”
Listen at 11:20
Ken Paxton is a scandal-plagued, flawed Senate candidate.
“The state's attorney general, Ken Paxton, is a very flawed candidate. This is a man with a lot of scandal.”
Listen at 13:10
Ken Paxton was indicted for securities fraud early in his tenure.
“Paxton was indicted for securities fraud”
Listen at 13:41
The Texas House impeached Ken Paxton in 2023 following bribery allegations.
“he was impeached by his own party in the Texas House in 2023 following bribery allegations”
Listen at 13:57
The Texas Senate acquitted Ken Paxton, allowing him to remain in office.
“He was acquitted by the Senate, so he stayed in office.”
Listen at 14:05
Republicans and super PACs supplied over $300 million of the advertising spending.
“Over $300 million of that is from Republicans and super PACs flooding the zone here”
Listen at 15:06
James Talarico defeated Jasmine Crockett with 1.2 million primary votes.
“Tallarico beat Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. He had 1.2 million votes.”
Listen at 15:48
Ted Cruz won his 2018 Texas race with nearly 4.3 million votes.
“Ted Cruz won his race in 2018 with almost 4.3 million votes.”
Listen at 15:55
Texas does not offer online voter registration.
“there is no online voter registration”
Listen at 16:33
Texas does not provide no-excuse absentee voting.
“there is not— there's not the no-excuse absentee voting there”
Listen at 16:54
Young voters’ turnout drops 51% from presidential to midterm elections.
“a 51% drop”
Listen at 18:29
Historically, about 21% of Texas voters aged 18–29 vote in midterms.
“only about 21% of voters age 18 to 29 have historically shown up to vote here over the last few decades in midterm elections.”
Listen at 18:31
About 27% of Latino voters historically vote in Texas midterms.
“Latinos, only about 27% show up to vote in midterm elections.”
Listen at 18:46
James Talarico is using a more moderate campaign tone to attract voters.
“He's tried to take a more moderate tone.”
Listen at 19:51
James Talarico is directly appealing to Christian and religious voters.
“he's talking to Christian voters, like he's talking to religious voters”
Listen at 20:42
Texas residents fear data centers will increase already high energy prices.
“people in Texas are really nervous about already high energy prices being affected by an influx of data centers around their neighborhoods.”
Listen at 21:42
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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