Sep 25, 2026 · 33 min
Thin liquidity collides with energy and geopolitical risk
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 25th, 2026
The episode connects fragile markets and inflationary energy pressures with U.S.-China negotiations and Paraguay’s strategic economic choices.
- 1Thin liquidity and uncertain energy shipments are intensifying pressure on oil, Treasury yields, and market confidence.
- 2Peter Tchir sees global energy infrastructure as attractive while inflation keeps the bond outlook under strain.
- 3U.S.-China talks remain managed competition, while Paraguay links Taiwan ties with debt resilience, energy potential, and beef exports.
Don't miss
Kate Kalutkiewicz connects Paraguay’s support for Taiwan with its energy potential, falling sovereign spread, and beef exports.
The brief
Peter Tchir argues that thin liquidity is making markets demand tangible progress on energy negotiations and shipments, while algorithmic trading amplifies moves in oil and Treasury yields.
Possible ceasefires involving Iran and Russia-Ukraine energy infrastructure expose the market’s central tension: negotiations may ease supply risks, but export restrictions and diesel constraints remain disruptive.
Tchir is bullish on global energy and related infrastructure but bearish on bonds, citing inflationary pressure and Europe’s green constraints while making the case for nuclear power.
Kate Kalutkiewicz describes U.S.-China ties as managed competition, with rare-earth negotiations and a limited delay serving a broader strategy of domestic resilience.
Paraguay’s support for Taiwan becomes an economic story as well as a diplomatic one, encompassing energy and investment potential, falling sovereign spreads, and beef exports.
The closing exchange links Paraguay’s renewable energy, resilient growth, and beef industry to a broader question: which countries can differentiate themselves amid high global yields?
What was said on this episode
25 statements · 12 positive · 7 negative · 1 mixed · 5 neutral
Markets require tangible energy-negotiation progress and shipments before becoming comfortable
“we need to see real progress on this and real shipments to really get comfortable”
Listen at 2:53
Oil prices could rise further
“I would think in oil prices, I think that could go a bit higher”
Listen at 3:03
Bonds have already priced in substantial expectations
“I think bonds have already priced in a lot”
Listen at 3:25
Thin liquidity and algorithmic trading drive market correlations
“liquidity is very narrow and thin in a lot of these markets, and it's very algo-driven”
Listen at 3:39
Treasury buybacks are not fully aimed at lowering yields
“This is not all in trying to get the yields down”
Listen at 4:51
Iran negotiations are unlikely to produce meaningful action
“it's really unlikely that we do anything”
Listen at 5:17
Ukraine increasingly uses domestically developed attack weapons
“the attack weapons that Ukraine is using are really almost homegrown at this stage”
Listen at 6:49
Diesel is currently dictating developments
“I think diesel is definitely dictating everything at this stage”
Listen at 7:19
U.S. export restrictions would be harmful over the longer term
“I would regret if we actually do... some sort of export restriction”
Listen at 7:26
Energy and energy-related infrastructure are highly attractive investments
“I'm getting extremely bullish on energy globally and anything that feeds on the energy, the ProSec”
Listen at 8:30
Energy infrastructure investment will be inflationary and weigh on bonds
“I think you can be bearish on bonds because that is going to be inflationary”
Listen at 8:43
Global inflation will struggle to remain below 2.5%
“I think it's going to be hard to get inflation under that 2.5% for long”
Listen at 8:49
AI and compute investment outcomes remain uncertain and separate from yields
“AI and compute, that's a separate conversation. I think that has nothing to do with yields or ProSec. That is, does this deliver or not? And that's still questionable, I think.”
Listen at 8:58
Tchir recommends continued purchases of BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total
“I'm long and will continue to buy BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total”
Listen at 9:11
Canadian energy companies are likely to perform well
“I think Canadian energy does well”
Listen at 10:03
China has had the strongest energy policy among major countries
“China, unfortunately, had the best energy policy”
Listen at 10:36
Access to rare earths and critical minerals is the key U.S.-China negotiation issue
“The access to rare earths and critical minerals is absolutely the most critical issue”
Listen at 16:36
U.S. trade policy seeks domestic self-sufficiency in essential goods
“it is a goal for the United States to never have to depend on another trading partner for the things that it needs”
Listen at 17:29
Paraguay has outperformed South American countries without diplomatic relations with China
“Paraguay not having relations with China is a country which is doing much better than the rest of the countries”
Listen at 23:04
Paraguay has abundant renewable-energy production
“Paraguay is so rich in energy. We are a very large producer of green renewable energy.”
Listen at 24:50
Paraguay and Taiwan can form a strategically important technology-energy alliance
“we can join forces and make one of the more strategically alliance in the West Hemisphere”
Listen at 25:03
Paraguay will compete strongly for scarce international capital
“Paraguay is going to be a very strong competitor”
Listen at 26:42
Paraguayan beef is the world’s best
“the Paraguayan beef is the best in the world”
Listen at 27:06
Paraguay’s trailing twelve-month inflation was 1.5%
“Inflation over the last 12 months in Paraguay has been 1.5%.”
Listen at 28:56
Paraguay’s growth has exceeded 5% for four years and will continue
“we have been growing for the last four years over 5%. And I think this will continue”
Listen at 29:08
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.