Aug 24, 2026 · 30 min
Trade tensions and AI concentration test investor confidence
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 24th, 2026
The episode connects market confidence and credit risks to tariff uncertainty, political gridlock, and the growing concentration of capital in artificial intelligence.
- 1Anne Walsh links client confidence and Treasury yields to credit-market risks, AI infrastructure debt, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
- 2U.S.-Canada trade tensions raise questions about tariffs, affordability, the USMCA, and the midterm-election consequences of congressional gridlock.
- 3Troy Gayeski sees less crowded opportunities in middle-market businesses, healthcare, robotics, defense, and private equity as AI attracts capital.
Don't miss
Troy Gayeski shifts from the crowded AI trade to less concentrated opportunities in healthcare, robotics, defense, and middle-market businesses.
The brief
Anne Walsh of Guggenheim discusses client confidence, Treasury yields, AI infrastructure debt, credit-market risks, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
The conversation turns to worsening U.S.-Canada trade tensions, where steep tariffs collide with affordability concerns, the USMCA, and the prospect of congressional gridlock.
Troy Gayeski argues that capital is becoming increasingly concentrated in AI across public and private markets, raising questions about risk and valuation.
Rather than chase the crowded trade, Gayeski points to middle-market businesses, healthcare, robotics, defense, and other private-equity opportunities shaped by higher yields.
What was said on this episode
28 statements · 13 positive · 14 negative · 1 neutral
The SEC inquiry does not concern Guggenheim’s investment-management operations or performance.
“what is not the focus of any inquiry is to our investment management process, our people, our performance and returns, or our trade allocations”
Listen at 3:10
Guggenheim faces an inquiry into an accounting issue at a subsidiary.
“We do have an inquiry into a business accounting issue in one of our subsidiaries”
Listen at 3:45
Guggenheim believes the subsidiary’s accounting treatment was appropriate.
“we feel that the accounting treatment was appropriate”
Listen at 4:06
Interest-sensitive parts of the economy are becoming somewhat weaker.
“the interest-sensitive parts of the economy are maybe a bit more wobbly”
Listen at 5:43
September and October have historically been periods of elevated market volatility.
“September and October, which historically is a market volatility period of time”
Listen at 6:09
A 5% yield on 10-year Treasuries would be a buying opportunity.
“If we see 5% on treasuries on the 10-year, I would tell you that is a buying opportunity.”
Listen at 6:52
The 30-year Treasury yield is unlikely to reach 6%.
“I don't see us going to 6% on the 30-year.”
Listen at 7:15
Anne Walsh would buy heavily if 30-year Treasury yields reached 6%.
“If it does, I would take the opposite view and I'd back up the truck. And I'd buy a lot of 6% 30-year treasuries.”
Listen at 7:19
Data-center construction carries significant long-term obsolescence risk.
“My concern about the data center build-out and the cost of that is the obsolescence risk in the long term.”
Listen at 8:19
AI infrastructure will attract trillions of dollars in capital expenditure.
“trillions of dollars of CapEx in this space that is happening over the next several years”
Listen at 8:50
AI-related investment-grade debt carries elevated near-term risk.
“I am concerned in the nearer term with regard to the risk that's happening”
Listen at 9:56
AI-related debt issuers are currently free-cash-flow negative.
“these issuers are free cash flow negative at this point in time”
Listen at 10:26
Concentrated AI debt issuance could affect credit markets.
“it could have repercussions to the credit market”
Listen at 10:58
A $300 billion balance-sheet increase equates to roughly a 0.25-point rate cut.
“by increasing the balance sheet by $300 billion, that's the equivalent of about a quarter percent rate cut”
Listen at 11:41
Financial conditions will probably tighten naturally in the second half.
“financial conditions are probably going to naturally tighten”
Listen at 12:14
The president views economics and trade as zero-sum activities.
“the president sees economics and trade as a zero-sum game”
Listen at 14:53
The United States is more likely to reach long-term trade agreements with Mexico than Canada.
“I think we're in a better place with Mexico and more likely to get longer term agreements with Mexico than we are with Canada.”
Listen at 16:09
The administration is lowering some tariffs because it is concerned about affordability.
“the administration is still very concerned on affordability, and that's why they're lowering tariffs on other products.”
Listen at 17:31
Democrats are likely to gain seats in the midterm elections.
“the party out of power, the Democrats, are likely to pick up seats in the midterms”
Listen at 18:18
The administration faces a difficult two-year period after the midterms.
“It's going to be a rocky two years”
Listen at 18:53
Capital concentration in AI has increased substantially across markets.
“the concentration has gone up substantially”
Listen at 22:51
Insufficient AI returns could produce a significantly negative economic outcome.
“That could lead to, obviously, a very negative economic outcome”
Listen at 23:38
AI investment will probably ultimately perform well.
“It will more than likely turn out fine.”
Listen at 24:44
Niche private-market opportunities have not yet experienced crowding out.
“we just haven't seen any evidence of crowding out in that niche area of the market”
Listen at 26:06
The Russell 2000 trades at higher valuation multiples than the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
“the Russell trades more expensively on a P basis than the NASDAQ and on the enterprise value EBITDA basis than the S&P”
Listen at 26:16
The Russell 2000 is expensive relative to larger indices with better growth prospects.
“it just strikes us as very expensive relative to larger indices that are out there with better growth prospects”
Listen at 26:30
Fed rate cuts have reduced private borrowers’ interest expense by about 15%.
“having the Fed lower rates by 175 basis points so far has reduced interest expense for private borrowers by about 15%”
Listen at 27:07
The front end faces no further pressure, and the Fed is not expected to hike rates.
“We don't expect further pressures in the front end. We're not expecting the Fed to actually hike rates.”
Listen at 27:21
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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