Nov 2, 2026 · 36 min
Trump turns a Michigan defection into a test of transactional politics
237. Election Eve: Trump Seizes on Michigan
The Michigan Senate race and a nuclear-war warning become windows into how Trump’s political instincts could shape the midterms and foreign-policy risk.
- 1Haley Stevens’s endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers tests whether a dramatic party break can reshape Michigan’s Senate race.
- 2Trump’s embrace of Stevens illustrates a transactional politics that can absorb former critics when an endorsement serves his interests.
- 3The hosts weigh Tucker Carlson’s Iran warning against questions about presidential authority, military resistance, and Democratic prospects.
Don't miss
The hosts debate whether Trump could legally order a nuclear strike against Iran and whether military advisers would carry it out.
The brief
From London on election eve, Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci examine Haley Stevens’s surprise endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers and whether it could damage Abdul El-Sayed’s chances.
The endorsement raises a broader question: can Stevens’s break with her party secure a political future, especially after Trump enthusiastically embraced someone who once criticized him?
The conversation turns sharply to Tucker Carlson’s warning that Trump could order a nuclear strike against Iran, prompting doubts about its sourcing, legality, and whether advisers would obey.
The hosts compare presidential behavior, military safeguards, and the role of figures including J.D. Vance, Pete Hegseth, and Mark Milley in assessing the warning’s plausibility.
They close by weighing election-integrity concerns and Democratic prospects through approval ratings, economic sentiment, and right-track or wrong-track indicators.
What was said on this episode
21 statements · 2 positive · 16 negative · 1 mixed · 2 neutral
Haley Stevens’s endorsement of Mike Rogers is an unusually rare political defection.
“I can't remember somebody saying, okay, I can't support this guy and indeed I'm going to support his opponent.”
Listen at 6:21
“The moment polls close on Tuesday night, it is the start of the 2028 race.”
Listen at 12:57
Democrats will face a major center-progressive conflict over the next two years.
“what is going to be one heck of a fight between the center of the party and the progressives in the party”
Listen at 13:17
Donald Trump’s political behavior is transactional and non-ideological.
“This is the genius of Trump, fully transactional, completely non-ideological, and we'll go wherever the wind goes.”
Listen at 14:37
Donald Trump only campaigns where he expects the candidate to win.
“he only wants to go into the campaigns where he knows they're gonna win”
Listen at 14:55
Haley Stevens’s Democratic political future is probably over unless she becomes Republican.
“her political future is probably over unless she becomes a Republican”
Listen at 15:34
Stevens’s endorsement mildly reduces Abdul El-Sayed’s electoral chances.
“Mildly hurts his chances. Mildly.”
Listen at 16:10
Stevens’s endorsement could modestly benefit Mike Rogers and harm Abdul El-Sayed.
“it could mildly help him. Meaning Rogers. And it could hurt Al Sayed.”
Listen at 16:25
Anthony believes Trump wants to use a nuclear weapon.
“I think Trump wants to use a nuke”
Listen at 23:33
Donald Trump repeatedly asked Mark Milley why nuclear weapons could not be used.
“Donald Trump asked Mark Milley several times why he couldn't use a nuclear weapon.”
Listen at 24:13
Trump’s current administration lacks the officials who previously restrained his nuclear instincts.
“This time around, those people are gone.”
Listen at 24:31
Anthony believes General Cain would not execute Trump’s nuclear order.
“I don't think Cain executes it.”
Listen at 25:12
Anthony believes Pete Hegseth would carry out whatever Trump ordered.
“Hexeth will do anything that Trump wants”
Listen at 25:19
Anthony believes military leaders would defy a Trump nuclear order.
“I do think that they defy the order.”
Listen at 25:57
Anthony says Trump discussed using nuclear weapons against Iran in 2017.
“In 2017, in the Situation Room, he talked about nuking Iran.”
Listen at 26:14
Anthony believes Donald Trump could order a nuclear strike.
“But this guy could do it.”
Listen at 27:35
Katty believes a commander-in-chief’s nuclear order would not be illegal.
“the order would not be illegal”
Listen at 28:08
Anthony predicts Trump would face The Hague as a war criminal after ordering a nuclear strike.
“he's probably going to The Hague as a war criminal”
Listen at 28:58
Katty believes Trump’s confidence about the midterms is mostly bluster.
“I think this is bluster.”
Listen at 31:53
Anthony has become more confident in Democrats’ midterm prospects based on polling.
“I have grown more confident for the Democrats based on these polls”
Listen at 31:57
Poor indicators make Republican midterm success difficult.
“all of those numbers are bad. So I think it's going to be very hard for them”
Listen at 32:48
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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