Oct 6, 2026 · 1h 10m
Trump’s Approval Turns Midterms Into a Test of Republican Control
Wave Watch (with Doug Sosnik and Ron Brownstein)
The panel weighs whether Trump’s declining support can overcome Republican structural advantages and reshape Senate races from Alaska to Maine.
- 1Trump’s weak approval and Democratic momentum make the midterms a referendum on Republican control.
- 2Turnout, candidate quality, and voter permission could determine whether Democrats compete in traditionally Republican states.
- 3Senate outcomes may influence judicial confirmations, party control, and the trajectory toward the 2028 presidential race.
Don't miss
The panel dissects Angela Paxton’s Texas ad, asking whether it gives voters permission to support Republicans without confronting Ken Paxton’s scandals.
The brief
David Axelrod, Mike Murphy, Doug Sosnik, and Ron Brownstein assess a midterm landscape shaped by Trump’s weak approval, Democratic momentum, and Republican structural advantages.
The panel argues that Trump’s 2024 coalition may not be durable, with declining support among Hispanic, young, rural, and non-college voters complicating the turnout math.
Georgia, Ohio, and Michigan show how candidate quality and attack ads can expand the map, even where redistricting and state partisanship favor Republicans.
Texas and Maine become tests of “permission structures”: can Angela Paxton and Susan Collins give voters enough room to split from their usual party choices?
The closing argument is blunt: these races will largely judge Trump and Republican control, with consequences for the Senate, confirmations, and 2028.