Sep 29, 2026 · 1h 8m
Trump’s ratings put Republican control of Congress at risk
For Whom the Poll Tolls (with John Anzalone and David Plouffe)
The episode tests whether economic discontent and weak presidential ratings can overcome Republican advantages in contested Senate and House races.
- 1Trump’s weak job and economic ratings create Republican vulnerabilities that late campaign messaging may not repair.
- 2Competitive Senate races hinge on ticket splitting, turnout uncertainty, and whether dissatisfied Trump voters return to the polls.
- 3A Democratic midterm gain could expand the party’s map without proving a durable realignment beyond urban centers.
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The panel warns that close elections could face post-election challenges over counting and certification, creating risks beyond Election Day.
The brief
David Axelrod and Mike Murphy bring pollsters John Anzalone and David Plouffe into a discussion shaped by a new Wall Street Journal poll and the approaching midterms.
The panel argues that Trump’s weak job and economic ratings have created a political environment advertising cannot easily reverse, leaving Republicans exposed on prices, immigration, and the economy.
Battleground Senate races from Texas to Georgia turn on ticket splitters, dissatisfied Trump voters, Libertarian candidates, and whether Republicans can mobilize their 2024 coalition.
The discussion widens to Latino and rural voters, whose economic concerns could reshape the map while making turnout harder to model through conventional voter files.
The standout warning concerns election administration: the greater danger may be post-election disputes, procedural stunts, and confusion over counting and certification rather than ballot casting itself.
A Democratic victory could improve the party’s 2028 prospects, but the hosts caution that midterm gains would not replace the need to rebuild support beyond major urban centers.