Sep 29, 2026 · 1h 8m
Listen from 18:16
Listen at 18:16
Trump’s ratings put Republican control of Congress at risk
For Whom the Poll Tolls (with John Anzalone and David Plouffe)
The episode tests whether economic discontent and weak presidential ratings can overcome Republican advantages in contested Senate and House races.
- 1Trump’s weak job and economic ratings create Republican vulnerabilities that late campaign messaging may not repair.
- 2Competitive Senate races hinge on ticket splitting, turnout uncertainty, and whether dissatisfied Trump voters return to the polls.
- 3A Democratic midterm gain could expand the party’s map without proving a durable realignment beyond urban centers.
Don't miss
The panel warns that close elections could face post-election challenges over counting and certification, creating risks beyond Election Day.
The brief
David Axelrod and Mike Murphy bring pollsters John Anzalone and David Plouffe into a discussion shaped by a new Wall Street Journal poll and the approaching midterms.
The panel argues that Trump’s weak job and economic ratings have created a political environment advertising cannot easily reverse, leaving Republicans exposed on prices, immigration, and the economy.
Battleground Senate races from Texas to Georgia turn on ticket splitters, dissatisfied Trump voters, Libertarian candidates, and whether Republicans can mobilize their 2024 coalition.
The discussion widens to Latino and rural voters, whose economic concerns could reshape the map while making turnout harder to model through conventional voter files.
The standout warning concerns election administration: the greater danger may be post-election disputes, procedural stunts, and confusion over counting and certification rather than ballot casting itself.
A Democratic victory could improve the party’s 2028 prospects, but the hosts caution that midterm gains would not replace the need to rebuild support beyond major urban centers.
What was said on this episode
45 statements · 20 positive · 17 negative · 2 mixed · 6 neutral
Trump has the worst modern presidential job and economic ratings.
“President Trump now has the worst job rating and economic ratings, diagnostics, of any modern-day president”
Listen at 4:03
Most voters say Trump’s economic policies worsened the economy.
“60% of... All voters say that Trump's economic policies have made the economy worse.”
Listen at 4:51
Pessimism about the country harms the governing party electorally.
“pessimism kills the party in power”
Listen at 5:12
Advertising has limited effectiveness in a severely unfavorable political environment.
“Ads have limited utility when the reality is this brutal.”
Listen at 6:01
Late campaign advertising probably will not overcome the unfavorable environment.
“I'm not sure this late advertising is going to overcome that.”
Listen at 6:15
The political environment will worsen before the November election.
“the environment is going to get worse between now and November, not better.”
Listen at 6:35
Health care premiums will rise 10–15 percent.
“health care premiums are going up 10 to 15 percent.”
Listen at 6:40
Food prices will surge late this year or in the first quarter.
“food prices are going to explode at the end of this year, first quarter.”
Listen at 6:44
Republicans should prioritize mobilizing Trump-first voters.
“they should focus on getting out Republicans who are Trump-first voters, not Republican-first voters”
Listen at 6:58
Democratic voter motivation exceeds Republican motivation by 10–15 points.
“the motivation level for Democratic voters is a good 10 or 15 points higher than Republican voters.”
Listen at 7:58
Data-center advocacy is not currently a winning Republican issue.
“Being the champion of data centers, and I know we can have a policy discussion another day. It's not a winning issue for Republicans right now.”
Listen at 9:55
Trump’s job rating is 60% negative in states he won.
“his job rating in Trump states is 60% negative.”
Listen at 10:47
The Texas Libertarian candidate will receive 2–3 percent.
“I actually think he's going to get two or three here.”
Listen at 14:02
The North Carolina Libertarian candidate may receive about two percent.
“It's really it's very possible that it will happen.”
Listen at 14:27
Eleven percent of Trump voters regret voting for him.
“11 percent of Trump voters regret their vote.”
Listen at 14:34
Late Republican positive messaging will not repair the damage.
“I think it's too late. I think the die is fast.”
Listen at 17:52
Latino voters support Democrats by more than 60 percent on the generic ballot.
“Latino voters have come home, you know, 60 plus in the generic ballot”
Listen at 24:54
The Latino vote may become America’s most persuadable swing vote.
“the Latino vote may become the most persuadable swing vote in America.”
Listen at 25:24
Trump won Latino support by emphasizing pocketbook economics.
“Trump won that economic money in your pocket argument last time and he won the vote with it.”
Listen at 26:24
Republican candidates lack meaningful separation from Trump late in the campaign.
“this is the problem with all these Republicans. They don't have any separation despite whatever they're doing here in the 11th hour.”
Listen at 28:04
Democratic congressional leaders will face a major test unifying the party.
“if we have a leader in the House and the Senate, there's there's a big test there to bring this Democratic Party together.”
Listen at 29:49
Medicaid cuts significantly harm rural America.
“Medicaid cuts really hurts rural America.”
Listen at 30:46
Rural voters are disappointed with Trump and less reflexively support him.
“even rural voters aren't knee-jerking. They're disappointed in this guy.”
Listen at 31:39
The Kansas ad attacking Roger Marshall is the cycle’s most effective ad.
“it is the most effective ad.”
Listen at 34:12
Democrats can regain competitiveness in rural communities.
“if we can get that back to kind of where we were axed during Obama years”
Listen at 34:34
Democrats can become more competitive in rural areas in upcoming elections.
“we have an opportunity now, both in this election and the next election, to become more competitive there.”
Listen at 35:01
Adam Hamilton will win the Kansas Senate race.
“I actually think Hamilton is going to win”
Listen at 36:00
Tallarico’s voicemail-style video probably reached more voters than conventional messaging.
“it also probably reached a lot more voters.”
Listen at 39:25
Candidates must use compelling daily communication to gain attention.
“you've got to put on a compelling show each and every day.”
Listen at 39:44
Democrats are more likely than not to win Senate control.
“I think it's more likely than not.”
Listen at 45:37
Candidate quality materially affects election outcomes.
“Candidate quality matters.”
Listen at 47:35
Democratic Senate control is not assured.
“I don't think the Senate's a done deal”
Listen at 48:05
El-Sayed will defeat Rogers in Michigan.
“I would put money now on El Saeed for all his problems against Rogers.”
Listen at 49:11
Abdul El-Sayed will win the Michigan Senate race.
“I think he's going to win.”
Listen at 50:10
El-Sayed is running a better campaign than Rogers.
“I think he's running a much better campaign than Rogers is.”
Listen at 52:29
El-Sayed will mobilize new voters missed by conventional polls.
“El Saeed will bring out new voters that we will never pick up in polls.”
Listen at 53:08
The Democratic generic-ballot lead may be closer to nine points.
“the generic ballot average today is about eight points for the Democrat, which means that, you know, it probably could be like closer to nine.”
Listen at 56:03
Post-election challenges to vote counting and certification pose serious risks.
“I'm very worried about that.”
Listen at 58:27
Voter anger will outweigh concerns that could discourage participation.
“the intensity and the anger is going to outweigh any concern.”
Listen at 59:48
The field of 2028 candidates will outperform J.D. Vance.
“I'd bet the field against him.”
Listen at 1:00:59
Josh Shapiro will outperform expectations in the midterms.
“Shapiro is also going to outperform, I think.”
Listen at 1:02:11
A Democratic midterm victory would primarily represent a protest vote.
“This was a protest vote.”
Listen at 1:02:32
The 2028 presidential battleground map has expanded.
“The battleground map has expanded for the 2028 presidential”
Listen at 1:03:17
AI policy may be the most important issue over the next twelve years.
“how we handle AI or not, maybe the most important thing over the next 12 years.”
Listen at 1:04:55
Democrats must reconnect with voters in rural and Republican-leaning areas.
“if the Democratic Party wants to sustain itself in national politics, it better figure out how to reach back out into those those that sea of red.”
Listen at 1:05:26
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.