Oct 13, 2026 · 1h 18m
Trump’s unpopularity tests Republican candidates in key Senate races
Split Happens (with Robert Gibbs and Karl Rove)
The panel examines whether Trump’s rallies, policy controversies, and Republican vulnerabilities can reshape competitive Senate contests before early voting closes.
- 1Trump’s rallies may reinforce Republican candidates’ dependence on an unpopular national figure while limiting their ability to define themselves.
- 2Early-voting returns appear favorable to Democrats, but uneven turnout and late counting make the data difficult to read.
- 3Campaign spending, misinformation, and October surprises matter most when they reinforce a clear message before voters cast ballots.
Don't miss
Rove and Gibbs debate whether Trump’s rallies mobilize Republican voters or instead remind them of the reasons they oppose him.
The brief
Karl Rove and Robert Gibbs join Axe and Murphy to assess whether Trump’s rallies help Republican candidates—or remind voters why they oppose him.
The panel argues that Russia and Ukraine policy, corruption concerns, and Trump’s personal business interests could weaken Republican turnout while offering Democrats an opening.
Early-voting data appears to favor Democrats in Ohio and Virginia, but the panel cautions that county-level patterns and late counts complicate any quick verdict.
Texas, Kansas, Michigan, and Maine provide tests of whether national dissatisfaction can overcome familiar Republican advantages and targeted cultural attacks.
In the mailbag, the panel says October surprises work best when they reinforce an existing narrative—and that Democrats still need a clearer message on government, fairness, and economic security.
What was said on this episode
36 statements · 15 positive · 18 negative · 3 neutral
Trump-centered midterm campaigning is strategically unwise given his low favorability.
“in a midterm election, which your favorability is in the mid to high 30s, is it a smart thing to make the election all about you? And no, I don't think it is.”
Listen at 4:58
Republicans should emphasize their candidates rather than the unpopular president.
“I tend to put the emphasis on the candidates who are actually on the ballot rather than the president is unpopular.”
Listen at 10:48
Trump rallies subordinate Republican candidates to Trump’s political persona.
“It started out as, and it continues to be the Trump show. And everybody else is a minor actor.”
Listen at 11:41
The Russia diesel arrangement could aid attacks on American servicemen through Iran.
“the Russians can use more satellites to target more American servicemen, giving the data to the Iranians for their missile attacks”
Listen at 13:42
The Russia diesel arrangement will not significantly reduce fuel prices.
“There's nobody that thinks this will bring about a significant reduction.”
Listen at 13:55
Any diesel-price reduction from the arrangement will not occur soon.
“nobody who thinks that whatever reduction there might be ultimately thinks it's going to happen anytime soon.”
Listen at 14:00
The diesel arrangement will not materially benefit ordinary people.
“they're not going to benefit. The people, you know, this is a fig leaf kind of thing that isn't going to actually benefit people”
Listen at 15:07
Trump’s controversial headlines are worsening Republican electoral prospects.
“The more he grabs headlines with the numbers he has flailing around on this crazy stuff, the worse for the R's.”
Listen at 16:19
Perceived focus on personal profit and retribution is hurting Trump and Republicans.
“the reason that among the many reasons that Trump and the Republicans are in trouble is because there's a perception that he was more focused on, you know, making money and doing other things and retribution than he was on people's problems.”
Listen at 17:57
Democratic candidates should emphasize corruption allegations against Trump.
“Go do the corruption stuff. People get that, and it's gold.”
Listen at 19:03
Trump-disillusioned voters may abstain rather than support Democrats.
“The question is whether they vote at all.”
Listen at 23:28
Virginia early voting showed Democrats about 6.2 points ahead, matching four years earlier.
“The Democrats are about 6.2 percent ahead of Republicans in voting, which is exactly where they were. four years ago.”
Listen at 25:03
Television advertising has limited effect in high-awareness, sharply defined races.
“political TV advertising, particularly in a sharply defined race where a lot of name ID, where people have opinions, is massively overrated.”
Listen at 33:17
Television advertising can be highly effective for unknown candidates.
“If you have unknown candidates, it can be incredibly powerful.”
Listen at 33:29
Large spending disparities have not substantially changed the Texas Senate race.
“the spending disparity hasn't really moved the race.”
Listen at 36:17
Ken Paxton should participate in a debate to improve his chance of winning.
“if he wants to win, he should debate.”
Listen at 37:25
Ken Paxton could win because of the favorable national environment for Republicans.
“Paxton could win because of the national environment.”
Listen at 37:49
Ken Paxton is a poor political candidate.
“He's a terrible candidate.”
Listen at 39:50
The Republican electoral wave will likely be large enough to disrupt expected state outcomes.
“My gut is yes, it's going to be that big”
Listen at 41:49
The Kansas Democratic Senate candidate will win.
“I actually think Kansas is going to win.”
Listen at 49:29
Mike Murphy predicts Hamilton will win the Kansas Senate race.
“I do.”
Listen at 49:37
Mike Rogers is strategically right to emphasize attacks on Abdul El-Sayed’s associations.
“I think he's right strategically to pound on it.”
Listen at 51:57
Abdul El-Sayed will likely underperform other Democratic candidates.
“I think El Saeed is likely to run behind where other Democrats are on the ballot.”
Listen at 58:30
The Michigan political wave will enable Abdul El-Sayed to win.
“this moment in Michigan of the wave is why I think El Saeed is going to win.”
Listen at 58:43
Abdul El-Sayed lacks sufficient enthusiasm among Black voters.
“there's less enthusiasm in the black community for El Saeed than he needs to have in that state.”
Listen at 59:20
The Michigan Senate race will end in a Democratic victory.
“I think it ends up being a Democratic win.”
Listen at 1:00:25
Susan Collins will lose her Maine Senate reelection race.
“I think she will lose.”
Listen at 1:03:07
Early campaign spending is generally more effective than late spending.
“Early money is almost always better because time is the other resource in the campaign.”
Listen at 1:09:57
Late panic spending is an inefficient way to use campaign funds.
“they're trying the late panicking avalanche theory, which is one of the worst ways to burn a dumpster full of dollars.”
Listen at 1:10:06
Late campaign spending buys substantially less advertising value.
“not only are they waiting later, but they're quite frankly getting far less bang for their buck.”
Listen at 1:11:19
A Los Angeles Jeopardy advertisement costs super PACs $25,000–$30,000.
“If you're a super PAC, not a candidate committee, that spot will cost you $25,000 to $30,000 today.”
Listen at 1:11:40
An October surprise works best when reinforcing an existing campaign argument.
“the October surprise that works. is a surprise that adds more evidence to the argument that you've been making.”
Listen at 1:12:40
Campaigns should release damaging information earlier in October, not immediately before Election Day.
“That doesn't work anymore. You'd rather do it on October 3rd and own the first half of the month.”
Listen at 1:13:48
Campaigns should peak around October 24–26 rather than Election Day.
“you don't want to peak on election day. You want to peak around the 24th, 25th, 26th of October.”
Listen at 1:13:58
Democratic midterm gains will primarily reflect the political environment, not their message.
“almost none of it is going to be because of the Democratic message. It is going to almost entirely be because of the environment”
Listen at 1:14:59
The midterm election will primarily serve as a referendum on the president.
“This is going to be a referendum on the president, as midterm elections always are.”
Listen at 1:15:44
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.