Sep 10, 2026 · 11 min

US consumer stays resilient as early retail signals improve

Top of the Morning: State of the US Consumer & Back to School trends

The episode tests whether resilient spending can support discretionary companies and a strong 2026 holiday season despite emerging consumer strain.

3 key takeaways

1US consumer spending remains resilient, though aggregate strength masks emerging areas of strain.
2Encouraging back-to-school indicators and stronger August spending support a constructive near-term outlook.
3UBS favors discretionary services serving higher-income households over consumer staples, absent a major economic or oil-price shock.

Don't miss

Sonny Mara connects encouraging back-to-school spending with a reasonably strong 2026 holiday outlook, while stressing the risk of a major economic or oil-price shock.

The brief

Dan Cassidy and Sonny Mara examine a US consumer that continues to spend, while looking beneath resilient headline data for emerging areas of strain.

Early back-to-school indicators are encouraging, with a late Labor Day affecting timing and August spending improving relative to July.

Mara prefers consumer discretionary over staples, especially services companies serving higher-income households, where spending appears more durable.

Back-to-school trends provide an early signal for the 2026 holiday season, which Mara expects to be reasonably strong unless a major economic or oil-price shock intervenes.

What was said on this episode

11 statements · 6 positive · 4 negative · 1 mixed

Sonny Maraon U.S. consumerPositive1:02
Overall U.S. consumer health is good.
“the health of the consumer overall is good”
Listen at 1:02
Sonny Maraon U.S. economyMixed1:27
The U.S. economy is currently K-shaped.
“what we do see under the hood is clearly a K-shaped economy that is in full effect”
Listen at 1:27
Sonny Maraon Higher fuel prices and lower-income consumersNegative1:32
Higher fuel prices have pressured lower-income consumers since the year began.
“The lower end has seen incremental pressure since the beginning of the year, mainly due to higher fuel prices.”
Listen at 1:32
Sonny Maraon OilNegative1:39
Oil is currently near $100.
“oil is near $100 now”
Listen at 1:39
Sonny Maraon American gasoline pricesNegative1:41
National gasoline prices are currently above $4.
“Gasoline, the national level is above $4 now.”
Listen at 1:41
Sonny Maraon Fuel costs and lower-income consumersNegative1:51
Fuel costs are increasingly burdening lower-income consumers.
“this fuel cost is starting to really bite at the lower end”
Listen at 1:51
Sonny Maraon Upper-income consumersPositive1:58
Upper-income consumers are doing very well.
“the upper income companies do very well”
Listen at 1:58
Sonny Maraon U.S. stock marketPositive2:02
The stock market is up by double digits this year.
“the stock market's still up double digits”
Listen at 2:02
Sonny Maraon Housing PricesPositive2:12
Home prices are 50% above pre-COVID levels.
“Home prices are up 50% since pre-COVID levels.”
Listen at 2:12
Sonny Maraon Wealth effect and highest-income householdsPositive2:15
Rising asset wealth is benefiting the highest-income households.
“this incredible wealth effect is really helping the top income cohort”
Listen at 2:15
Sonny Maraon Upper-income household spending sharePositive2:42
Upper-income households now account for a slightly larger spending share.
“the share of spending, let's say, you know, a share of the total pie that's being done by the upper income cohort is slightly higher than it was year scope”
Listen at 2:42

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.