Aug 26, 2026 · 1h 4m
Warren Pies flags macro risks behind the AI bull market
Time to Reduce Equity Risk: Why Underappreciated Macro Risks Could Derail the Bull Market | Warren Pies
The conversation tests whether investors can preserve exposure to a durable AI theme while preparing for rates, fiscal pressure, and weaker market breadth.
- 1Pies shifted from overweight stocks and commodities to neutral, replacing those positions with cash as macro risks become more balanced.
- 2A September Federal Reserve hike could raise concerns about credibility, term premiums, and fiscal pressure rather than simply stabilizing long-term yields.
- 3Energy offers diversification while software faces pressure from a potential Anthropic listing, but semiconductors remain central to the market’s structure.
Don't miss
Pies argues that a September rate hike would not automatically stabilize long-term yields because term premiums, credibility, and fiscal risks could dominate.
The brief
Warren Pies explains why 3Fourteen Research moved from overweight stocks and commodities to neutral, favoring cash as seasonal weakness and macro uncertainty rise.
The September Federal Reserve meeting is framed as a genuine coin flip, with a hike potentially exposing concerns about credibility, term premiums, and fiscal pressure.
Pies sees a healthier bull market if technology leadership broadens, but warns that software could face pressure from an Anthropic listing while semiconductors remain pivotal.
Energy serves as a structural diversifier in an inflationary regime, offering protection if correlations rise and a macro shock overwhelms the market’s recent winners.
The central tension is caution versus conviction: Pies would reduce risk after a shock, yet still wants to remain long the AI theme once its effects are clear.
What was said on this episode
27 statements · 10 positive · 9 negative · 2 mixed · 6 neutral
Warren Pies downgraded stocks after the market reached approximately 7,800.
“we downgraded stocks”
Listen at 1:23
Warren Pies’s firm neutralized its stock positioning after remaining overweight through summer.
“we've neutralized that now”
Listen at 2:16
The firm expected 2026 to be an earnings-explosion year.
“we expected this to be an earnings explosion year”
Listen at 3:27
Warren Pies expects the midterm elections to produce a Democratic wave.
“the midterm elections are going to be a blue wave, maybe a blue tsunami”
Listen at 6:14
Warren Pies recommends reducing portfolio risk during the current macro-risk window.
“it's a time to take down risk”
Listen at 6:34
The firm replaced reduced stock and commodity exposure with cash.
“We put it all in cash.”
Listen at 6:58
Warren Pies views August 15 through October 15 as an unfavorable market window.
“we highlighted the window from August 15th to October 15th as a period where I don't like the seasonals and I don't like the structure”
Listen at 7:57
Warren Pies views the September Fed meeting as roughly evenly split on a hike.
“That's really a coin flip.”
Listen at 8:54
Warren Pies maintains that the September Fed meeting remains a coin flip on a hike.
“our argument has been this whole time that this is a coin flip meeting”
Listen at 9:24
Warren Pies judges recent economic data less dovish than markets interpreted it.
“it has not... been nearly as dovish as the market's reaction to it”
Listen at 9:40
Warren Pies’s model forecasts core PCE inflation at 0.28% month over month.
“We expect it to come in at 0.28 month over month.”
Listen at 10:05
Warren Pies believes the Fed’s tolerance for overlooking temporary inflation is diminishing.
“the tolerance for looking through things, even things that are appropriate to look through at the Fed is wearing thin”
Listen at 10:49
Warren Pies says the unemployment-rate decline could reverse.
“it could very well mean revert”
Listen at 14:19
Warren Pies thinks Fed officials could push for a September rate hike.
“I think absolutely.”
Listen at 15:15
Warren Pies sees broadening technology leadership as the ideal path for the bull market.
“my ideal mechanism for this bull market continuing higher is tech leadership broadening”
Listen at 27:40
Warren Pies says technology must regain leadership for the market to advance.
“You'll ultimately need to see tech reassert its leadership.”
Listen at 28:25
Without renewed technology leadership, Warren Pies sees limited market upside.
“Otherwise, I don't think the market has a ton of upside.”
Listen at 28:29
Warren Pies’s firm strongly believes in artificial intelligence technology.
“we are big time AI believers”
Listen at 29:24
Warren Pies reports that tracked Blackwell B200 availability remains zero.
“Blackwell B200 availability is still at zero from what we track”
Listen at 33:43
Warren Pies judges the rise in H200 GPU availability as benign.
“this is a benign rise”
Listen at 34:24
Warren Pies says hyperscalers and semiconductors need to rise together for the next market leg.
“you need them both to go up together”
Listen at 36:59
Warren Pies assesses data centers as an increasingly important political issue.
“data centers have become a political issue at this point in time”
Listen at 39:48
Warren Pies believes this earnings season largely resolved doubts about data-center ROI.
“the data center roi question was basically solved this earning season”
Listen at 40:29
Warren Pies expects an Anthropic listing to pressure software and benefit semiconductors and hardware.
“it'll weigh on on software and be positive for semis and hardware”
Listen at 53:54
Warren Pies expects software to bear the initial pressure during AI IPO periods.
“the real pain point will be software initially during these IPO periods”
Listen at 54:56
Warren Pies recommends constructing investment baskets differently from standard GICS sectors.
“you really got to build the basket different from the GICS sectors”
Listen at 59:08
Warren Pies says a macro shock or earnings catalyst is needed to end the market’s grind higher.
“you need something to break that”
Listen at 1:01:06
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.