What podcasts say about Christian Mueller-Glissmann
Every statement, with the speaker, the exact quote and the moment it was said.
What Christian Mueller-Glissmann has said on podcasts
29 statements · 12 positive · 13 negative · 2 mixed · 2 neutral
AI capital expenditure has accelerated nominal economic growth.
“this AI CapEx boom has created this nominal growth acceleration”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 3:14
AI investment-phase earnings cannot be extrapolated indefinitely.
“you cannot extrapolate the investment phase for too long”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 7:00
AI productivity benefits remain early in their adoption curve.
“we are probably still at the early part of the J curve”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 7:52
AI productivity benefits are not yet visible in broad earnings or macro data.
“we cannot really see it”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 9:33
MSCI World forward P/E has declined about 15% year to date.
“the 12-month forward PE ratio for the MSCI world will have come down 15% or so year to date”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 11:02
S&P 500 forward P/E fell from 23 times to 19 times.
“for the S&P 500, I think when we came into the year, 12-month forward PE ratio was 23 times. Now you're at 19 times.”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 11:15
Some market segments are more likely in an earnings bubble than valuation bubble.
“we are more likely to be a bit in an earnings bubble, at least in some of these parts of the market”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 12:57
An earnings bubble can deflate gradually over an extended period.
“an earnings bubble can take a long time to deflate”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 13:08
Without AI monetization, depreciation and negative cash flow will reduce profitability and valuations.
“if they don't, I agree, these negative free cash flow yields and these future depreciation kind of headwinds, they need to be reflected further in valuations because profitability will come down”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 13:56
AI-related profitability deterioration will likely be slower than the tech-bubble decline.
“it will probably be a relatively slow process. It will not be like during the tech bubble where you have like really sharp declines in equities.”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 16:42
AI capital-expenditure earnings tailwinds are peaking.
“the phase that we're entering in now is more difficult because the tailwinds you get from the AI CapEx for earnings are peaking”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 20:28
Earnings will experience some mean reversion in coming years.
“there is some type of mean reversion in earnings ahead of us in the coming years”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 22:06
Some recent earnings growth is likely structural and will persist.
“there's some of that earnings growth that we've seen in the last five years that probably will stick”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 22:11
A sharp equity correction would likely negatively affect the economy.
“when you get actually a sharp correction equities, there is probably a negative feedback loop to the economy”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 25:36
Current equity returns on equity exceed late-1990s levels by more than double.
“the return on equity right now is more than double than what it was during the late 1990s”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 27:47
Structural conditions have become less favorable for long-duration bonds.
“the structural cycle has become less friendly for long duration bonds”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 33:28
Higher bond yields are pressuring small caps, real estate, homebuilders, and rate-sensitive financials.
“small mid caps have come under pressure, real estate, home builders, rate sensitive parts, selective financials”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 36:27
Continued growth is needed for equities to absorb higher bond yields.
“you need to really follow through with growth in the next few weeks and months in order to keep equities, to help equities digest these higher bond yields”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 38:26
AI adoption must progress toward monetization by corporate users.
“you need to bridge that gap where you start to talk about monetizing AI”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 41:05
Equity volatility is currently inexpensive relative to other volatility markets.
“equity volatility is a bit cheap here, no doubt”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 42:23
Upside equity convexity appears inexpensive into year-end.
“I'm leaning more towards the upside convexity being cheap into year end”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 43:44
Investors should consider slightly longer-dated calls for equity exposure.
“it can be very attractive to own slightly longer dated calls to kind of run your equity exposure right now”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 43:49
Nearly 40% of S&P 500 stocks recently had negative beta to the index.
“nearly 40% within the S&P 500, 40% of stocks had a negative beta to the S&P 500”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 47:55
Timing a bull-market peak is extremely difficult.
“timing the peak of a bull market is incredibly difficult”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 52:59
Factor diversification is a useful portfolio risk-management tool.
“factor diversification is a very good example”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 55:00
Investors should include real assets to improve resilience to geopolitical shocks.
“real assets in the portfolio”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 59:09
Global asset allocators are increasingly focusing on gold.
“we've seen a lot more focus on gold”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 1:01:29
Gold is a constructive portfolio diversifier against broad geopolitical risk.
“we've been quite constructive on gold as a portfolio diversifier to deal with broad geopolitical risk”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 1:02:01
FX volatility exposures will become more valuable as portfolio protection.
“FX volatility and expressions linked to FX volatility will also become much more valuable in the portfolio”
Open the episode · UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-GlissmannListen at 1:06:37
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.