What podcasts say about Dirk Willer
Every statement, with the speaker, the exact quote and the moment it was said.
What Dirk Willer has said on podcasts
71 statements · 35 positive · 24 negative · 5 mixed · 7 neutral
U.S. markets entered bubble territory around mid-2025.
“We entered bubble territory roughly in the middle of last year.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 0:06
- on U.S. equity market capitalization-to-GDP ratioNegativeOct 15, 2026· The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
The current equity-market-cap-to-GDP ratio implies a larger recession than in 2000.
“And now it's at 240% of GDP. So you can expect a bigger recession.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 0:32
The Federal Reserve may cut rates back to zero after a larger recession.
“And the Fed will react to that. Maybe rates go back to zero.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 0:36
Citi’s shadow rate is currently high, indicating hawkish Federal Reserve policy.
“Right now it's at the highs. We think that means it's hawkish.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 0:44
The market bubble will continue for another year.
“The bubble will keep giving for another year.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 0:56
Gold will rise sharply after the bubble peaks and policy reverses.
“Gold will go straight up.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 1:11
Citi defines a bubble as a real price exceeding its long-term trend by two standard deviations.
“if someone if something goes up more than two standard deviations against the long-term trend in real terms we call it a bubble”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 1:59
The market entered bubble territory around mid-2025 under Citi’s definition.
“we entered bubble territory roughly middle of last year”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 2:54
The current bubble could eventually produce a severe market reversal.
“eventually we could have a fairly severe... sort of payback time”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 3:25
Investors should avoid excessive leverage and maintain hedges during a bubble.
“don't be over levered, have maybe some hatred on the book”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 3:41
Stocks may peak six to nine months before underlying fundamentals.
“stocks maybe peak six to nine months before fundamentals peak”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 4:19
Compute infrastructure will eventually become overcapacity.
“In the end, there will be overcapacity of compute.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 4:47
Liquidity withdrawal is a major factor in bursting market bubbles.
“withdrawal of liquidity is one big aspect of popping them”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 4:53
Liquidity withdrawal contributed to the Nasdaq’s March 2000 peak.
“the market peeped in March”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 5:24
The first rate hike usually has limited impact, while the final hike harms markets.
“The first Fed hike is usually not a problem. The last Fed hike is a problem.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 5:33
Market breadth typically narrows during a bubble as investors concentrate in one theme.
“The nature of the bubble is actually that breadth gets very narrow”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 6:25
November and December are historically strong months for equities.
“November, December are always strong seasonals”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 6:55
November–December seasonality is stronger following a good equity year.
“in a good year, the seasons are even stronger”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 7:00
- on U.S. equities around midterm electionsNegativeOct 15, 2026· The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
Equities typically pull back about 5% before midterm elections.
“usually you get a bit of a pullback into the midterms nothing too tragic on average i think it's around five percent or so”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 7:30
The S&P 500 can probably continue ignoring interest-rate increases.
“we do think the smp can probably continue to ignore uh interest rates”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 8:57
The Federal Reserve chair’s shadow-rate reading indicates hawkish policy.
“right now it's at the highs. We think that means he's hawkish.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 10:53
The S&P 500 usually pulls back around the first hike and stalls near the final hike.
“The S&P usually has a little bit of a pullback around the first hike and then stops carrying until the last hike.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 11:31
A rule of thumb is selling bonds six months before hikes and buying when one hike remains.
“Bonds, the rule of thumb is you're supposed to sell bonds roughly six months before the first hike and you buy them back when there's one hike left.”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 11:44
Higher real rates explain nearly all of the rise in long-term Treasury yields.
“all the work has been done by real rates”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 13:33
Treasury markets have not indicated a loss of Federal Reserve credibility.
“the market never said that the Fed is losing credibility”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 13:37
Treasury markets have not signaled a major fiscal problem.
“the market never said that uh it's a big fiscal problem”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 13:51
The Treasury could reduce issuance duration in its November refinancing.
“the treasury could use the november refinancing to really again lower the duration of what they push into the market”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 15:45
Long-term real bond yields are attractive for sufficiently long-horizon investors.
“the real yields on offer on the bond market side are interesting”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 17:24
Equities will experience a meaningful setback within roughly five years.
“the equity market at some stage over the next five years or so will have a very meaningful setback”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 17:30
Policy rates may return to zero after the equity bubble bursts.
“maybe rates go back to zero whenever that happens”
Open the episode · Meb 654 DirkListen at 18:20
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.