What podcasts say about Michael Greenbaum
Every statement, with the speaker, the exact quote and the moment it was said.
What Michael Greenbaum has said on podcasts
51 statements · 18 positive · 23 negative · 1 mixed · 9 neutral
Passive-investment mechanics are driving current bond-market behavior.
“the mechanical properties, as you've heard me emphasize in prior discussions around passive investing, are now playing out in the bond markets”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 3:35
The bond sell-off reflects little fundamental investment analysis.
“there's very little thought that's actually going into this bond sell-off”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 4:06
Bond-index construction is creating most observed bond-market behavior.
“it's simply a function of how we've decided to build the indices that is creating most of the behavior that we are seeing at this point”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 5:12
The bond sell-off is global and mechanical, not U.S.-specific or inflation-centered.
“It is not US-specific. It is not inflation-centered. It is a mechanical product.”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 6:33
Fiscal profligacy would weaken the dollar, contrary to current market behavior.
“If it were any of the phenomenon that you were highlighting, if it was indeed fiscal profligacy, we would expect to see the dollar weakening, not strengthening.”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 7:59
Current bond-market conditions present a buying opportunity.
“I do think it's a buying opportunity”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 8:45
The mechanical bond sell-off can continue substantially further.
“this can go quite a bit further if we continue to maintain our investment strategies in this manner”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 9:11
Interest-rate hikes will not address war-related inflation fears.
“hiking interest rates in no way will address fears of inflation around a war in the Middle East”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 9:20
Raising interest rates is counterproductive in current conditions.
“I think it's actually counterproductive”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 10:10
Federal Reserve policy will reduce jobs and opportunities for younger workers.
“the policy that is being pursued by the Federal Reserve, all else equal, will lower the quantity of jobs and job opportunities available to your generation”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 12:20
Current monetary policy will worsen younger generations’ economic conditions.
“this is unfortunately going to exacerbate and worsen conditions for the younger generation at the expense of the older generation”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 12:42
A return to zero policy rates would lower long-term interest rates.
“if the Federal Reserve were to cut interest rates to 0% again, we would expect to see lower interest rates”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 13:41
Long-duration bonds trading below 50 cents are likely underpriced.
“low-price, long-duration bonds. Trading below 50 cents are something that is by and large ignored by the passive bid. That means that's an asset that ultimately is almost certainly underpriced.”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 15:42
The Federal Reserve will eventually recognize the bond-market mechanics.
“Eventually the Federal Reserve will figure this out”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 16:19
Greenbaum’s bond-market thesis is accurate.
“I think it's an accurate take”
Open the episode · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying OpportunityListen at 17:12
Peter Thiel has extensively applied contrarian and steel-manning methods in his investments.
“Peter has exploited that to an extraordinary extent within his portfolios and his investments.”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 0:57
Passive investing creates market distortions because index funds must transact.
“passive investing was not passive in any incarnation that it was creating distortions by virtue of the fact that they transact”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 1:22
Index arbitrage has become the largest equity hedge-fund strategy by allocation.
“that actually has grown into the single largest hedge fund strategy in equity space by allocation”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 2:44
Security prices are always driven by net investment inflows.
“They're always driven by net inflows.”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 4:10
Restrictions on tobacco ownership should lower Altria's price relative to competitors.
“Some people have investment mandates that prohibit them from owning tobacco stocks. All else equal, that should lower the price of Altria relative to its competitors”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 5:14
Many ESG investment theories are ultimately unsound.
“A lot of those theories are ultimately nonsense.”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 5:53
Current conditions indicate ESG-driven investing will not spread as expected.
“If anything, I think the current environment says that that is absolutely not the case.”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 6:13
ESG inflows contributed to ESG stocks' relative outperformance.
“during the period in which ESG investing received significant inflows as people embraced this style of investing, it actually contributed to the outperformance”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 6:38
BlackRock balances low-fee index products against higher-fee alternatives.
“Firms like BlackRock, for example, are constantly forced to balance very low income ETFs or index funds against higher fee alternatives”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 7:13
Current market conditions create roughly $22 of capitalization per dollar invested.
“my estimate is somewhere around $22 is created for every dollar in”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 10:28
One dollar invested in NVIDIA raises its market capitalization by about $100.
“$1 into an NVIDIA is raising NVIDIA's market cap by $100.”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 10:40
Rumors of NASDAQ inclusion roughly quintupled SpaceX's price.
“As that became rumored, SpaceX roughly quintupled in price.”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 11:51
Index demand facilitated SpaceX insiders' sales as shares became available.
“the index demand, which showed up the next couple of days and continues to expand as shares become available. facilitated that exit for the insiders that want to sell into it”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 12:40
Daily rebalancing by leveraged ETFs creates endogenous market flows.
“Levered ETFs that have to rebalance on a daily basis create an endogenous form of flow.”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 14:52
Leveraged ETFs buy into rising prices and sell into falling prices to maintain leverage.
“If prices are going higher, they're forced to buy more. to maintain their leverage ratios if price is falling they have to sell more into that activity”
Open the episode · E428: Michael Green on Peter Thiel, SpaceX, and Inefficient MarketsListen at 14:58
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.