What podcasts say about Paul Kedrosky
Every statement, with the speaker, the exact quote and the moment it was said.
What Paul Kedrosky has said on podcasts
49 statements · 5 positive · 38 negative · 4 mixed · 2 neutral
Two Anthropic customers account for approximately 25% of revenue.
“2 customers are on the order of 25% of revenues”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 4:10
Approximately six Anthropic customers account for 60% of revenue.
“something like 6 customers are 60% of revenues”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 4:16
Anthropic’s training costs are ordinary operating costs, not exceptional expenses.
“The training costs are just the day-to-day running of the business”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 6:49
Training costs should be included when valuing Anthropic’s earnings.
“it should be reflected in the earnings that we look at to value the business”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 7:00
Anthropic’s inference-only operations could generate several billion dollars of positive cash flow.
“it could be as high as a couple of billion dollars in positive cash flow just from inference alone”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 8:38
The first frontier-model company to stop training and focus on inference may win.
“the first frontier model company to stop training models and just do inference is probably going to win”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 9:10
Wall Street will penalize AI companies for excluding training costs.
“Wall Street's going to give them a wake-up call on that”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 9:31
A viable AI cash-flow business requires substantially lower training spending.
“I think there is a cash flow business here, but it requires far less money spent on training”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 10:24
Wall Street should punish Anthropic for excluding training costs from earnings.
“Should Wall Street punish them for it, yes.”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 10:35
Anthropic’s approximately $2 trillion valuation is excessive.
“Well, it's a ridiculous price.”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 10:44
Stopping frontier-model training would be catastrophic for Anthropic and OpenAI.
“it's actually catastrophic for them if they do that”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 12:00
China would overwhelm frontier AI firms in industrial token production.
“China crushes them with cheaper power and vastly larger industrial token production”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 12:09
Frontier AI companies lose their competitive moat if they stop training models.
“if you don't keep training, you have no moat”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 12:47
Anthropic and OpenAI will become premium performance providers rather than mass-market manufacturers.
“they become like Ferraris”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 13:13
Anthropic’s existential-risk disclosures will trigger numerous lawsuits.
“Expect a litany of lawsuits over it for exactly this reason.”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 15:14
The Anthropic IPO may not occur.
“I actually have a standing bet that it doesn't happen”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 15:42
If Anthropic’s IPO occurs, it will initially succeed before immediately declining.
“I do expect it comes out when it comes out and it's successful for sort of in a SpaceX sense of successful. And then we have the immediate slide lower.”
Open the episode · Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are StunningListen at 16:30
AI capital expenditure contributed 30%–70% of GDP growth over 12–18 months.
“It's been consistently between 30% and 70% of GDP growth.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 5:46
The United States will not default on its debt because it issues dollars.
“The U.S. prints dollars. They are not going to default.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 17:17
Hyperscaler debt issuance raises Treasury yields through competition for yield-sensitive investors.
“This is literally an artifact of competition at the margin from hyperscaler issuance in a newly yield-sensitive market, causing people to say, I'd rather own X than Y. And that has sovereign consequences for the U.S.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 17:28
AI is being treated as both the source of debt problems and the productivity solution.
“AI is not just the problem, it's the solution.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 19:15
Recent productivity gains largely reflect capital spending rather than labor productivity.
“right now that's almost entirely an artifact of... of capital spending, not labor.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 20:52
AI-scribe hospital outcomes may reflect wealth and patient-health selection effects.
“It's exactly what you would expect to have happen if you found a new variable that filtered hospitals for healthy patients and wealthy hospitals.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 22:07
Excluding AI-related inflation and energy effects, U.S. prices are falling about 0.25%.
“by my math, the U.S. is actually in a deflationary mode, about a quarter of a percent.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 30:32
The U.S. is positioned for a prolonged Japan-like balance-sheet recession.
“We've got all the pieces in place right now for a very long balance sheet recession analogous to what happened in Japan in its lost decade.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 31:38
Some AI infrastructure firms may become insolvent when refinancing debt within five years.
“they face a different problem, which is as they try to roll over their debt, it may come on terms over the next five years. force them into some species of insolvency.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 32:35
Corporate deleveraging will intensify economy-wide hiring declines.
“the effects overall on hiring will be even more dramatic because companies will be focused entirely on deleveraging.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 34:06
The economy will show increasing weakness over the next year.
“over the next year or so, we'll start seeing increasing signs that the economy is much weaker than people expect.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 34:48
The economy will probably enter a longer-than-expected recession.
“we'll probably be heading into a relatively longer recession”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 34:55
High sovereign debt is increasingly limiting fiscal stimulus capacity.
“Fiscal policy is being increasingly rendered impossible because of the indebtedness of major sovereigns around the world.”
Open the episode · The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul KedroskyListen at 36:08
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.