What podcasts say about William H. Eigen III
Every statement, with the speaker, the exact quote and the moment it was said.
What William H. Eigen III has said on podcasts
24 statements · 3 positive · 20 negative · 1 mixed
Low rates or tight risk premiums limit fixed-income return potential.
“when interest rates are low enough or risk premiums are tight enough. you run out of room to make money in fixed income.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 5:49
Eigen held 80–90% cash in 2021 to avoid long-term Treasury losses.
“I was literally in 2021, I was holding 80 to 90% cash”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 7:08
Credit spreads are near historical lows.
“Spreads are near all time tights.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 7:59
Two-year Treasuries near 5% price in excessive Federal Reserve tightening.
“I think two-year treasuries at around five are pricing too much Fed tightening now”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 9:26
Further Federal Reserve tightening will eventually tip the economy into recession.
“the Fed can only tighten so far before they're going to tip us into recession”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 9:30
AI-related capital spending will reverse or slow down.
“AI, spending capex. It starts to reverse, which I think it will, or slow down.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 9:40
Inflation and fiscal conditions are the main drivers of current interest-rate problems.
“The single biggest problem you have is inflation. The second is fiscal.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 10:42
Inflation is worsening rather than slowing.
“Inflation is not slowing down. In fact, it's getting worse.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 10:46
The Federal Reserve will not raise its policy rate to 5%.
“I don't think the Fed's going to get the 5%.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 12:32
Long-duration bonds will generate returns only through a severe recession.
“the only way you make money on the long end is via a nasty recession”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 12:44
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities will outperform traditional Treasuries.
“I do think tips will outperform traditional treasuries”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 15:26
Higher interest rates can cause losses in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.
“Tips have duration. And, you know, rates go up enough, you're going to, you know, you're going to get hit on tips”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 15:33
Weak triple-C bonds signal caution in high-yield investing.
“Now, right now, triple C's are screaming at you, be careful what you're doing in high yield”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 19:15
Liquidity in high-yield markets can disappear quickly.
“that liquidity can be fleeting.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 19:53
The AI-related trade has $2.3 trillion in off-balance-sheet obligations.
“right now you're looking at $2.3 trillion in off balance sheet obligations for the AI related trade.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 20:30
Many planned data centers will not be built.
“a lot of these data centers aren't going to get built.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 21:27
Major technology companies’ operating cash flows have sharply deteriorated.
“their cash flow, as you know, their operating cash flow numbers had just crumpled to nothing.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 23:41
Oracle’s spending all revenue on capital expenditure is unsustainable.
“spending 100% of the revenue on CapEx. That's just not sustainable.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 23:51
The scale of AI spending makes Eigen likely correct that data-center economics will disappoint.
“I think I have a high probability of being right here simply because of the sheer amount of money that's been spent and the ROI that's going to be demanded of these data centers.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 25:33
The AI infrastructure boom will produce both winners and losers.
“there's going to be winners and losers here.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 25:54
The next high-yield spread widening will exceed 500 basis points.
“When high yield goes this time, I don't think it's going to stop at 500.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 28:06
Eigen’s fund is positioned defensively at its highest level since 2007.
“I'm the most defensively I've been positioned since 07 in my fund right now.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 28:35
An AI slowdown caused by excessive debt would produce at least a minor recession.
“Yes, yes, 100%.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 29:02
Current AI-related borrowing and spending behavior will eventually end badly.
“that behavior that I know is going to end badly at some point.”
Open the episode · Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?Listen at 29:23
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.