Oct 18, 2026 · 41 min
Listen from 18:24
Listen at 18:24
Investors test dating apps, AI infrastructure and Eli Lilly
Dating apps are dying, is Eli Lilly still a buy & Pimp My Portfolio with Owen Rask
The episode connects weakening consumer platforms and leveraged AI infrastructure with a practical framework for deciding when an investment thesis still holds.
- 1Dating-app businesses face weaker valuations and renewed competition from real-world social activity.
- 2AI data-centre companies may lose pricing power as borrowing costs rise and AI models become cheaper.
- 3Eli Lilly shows how investors can reassess a thesis through growth, competition, earnings and valuation.
Don't miss
The Eli Lilly discussion turns a listener’s buy, hold or sell question into a structured test of growth, competition, earnings and valuation.
The brief
Bumble’s collapse and Match Group’s struggles prompt a broader question about dating apps, as singles appear to be returning to real-world events and social activities.
The hosts then examine risks spreading through AI data-centre infrastructure: higher borrowing costs, cheaper AI models and more commoditized chips could weaken highly leveraged operators’ pricing power.
A listener’s question turns the discussion practical: before buying, holding or selling, investors should ask whether the thesis changed or only the price moved.
Eli Lilly becomes the case study, with GLP-1 demand weighed against competition, prescription growth, market size, pricing pressure, margins and valuation ahead of earnings.
Owen Rask reviews a portfolio mixing broad ETFs, resources, gold, technology and Bitcoin, arguing that clearer core and satellite holdings could reduce overlap.
The closing comparison favors consistency and broad exposure over constant adjustment, while acknowledging that curiosity can help investors stay invested through difficult markets.
What was said on this episode
25 statements · 9 positive · 11 negative · 2 mixed · 3 neutral
Bumble achieved an annual profit only once as a public company.
“Bumble only made an annual profit once in its time as a public company.”
Listen at 3:36
Dating-app decline may primarily affect heterosexual dating apps.
“people who are calling the death of the dating app, it might be the death of the heterosexual dating app.”
Listen at 5:24
CoreWeave’s 2032 bonds trade at 78 cents on the dollar.
“Those bonds are now trading at 78 cents on the dollar.”
Listen at 8:19
CoreWeave’s bond yields have reached junk-bond territory near 15%.
“yields touch 15%. So they're getting into junky territory.”
Listen at 8:36
Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate fell to $76 billion by September.
“as of september it's actually gone backwards oh really the annualized revenue run rate was down to 76 billion”
Listen at 10:20
CoreWeave’s Q2 interest expense was $640 million, about 25% of revenue.
“their interest bill in Q2 was $640 million, which was about 25% of its revenue.”
Listen at 12:20
Broad small-cap indexes can lose successful companies and add declining companies.
“the good companies moving out of the index and the bad companies or the ones that aren't performing so well moving back into the index as they fall.”
Listen at 15:56
Investors should sell when the investment thesis has changed.
“If the thesis has changed, you know, the stock's fallen because... You bought a stock for a reason. That reason hasn't played out and the stock's fallen. Well, then the thesis has changed. Sell.”
Listen at 16:29
Investors should hold or add when price falls but the thesis remains intact.
“If the price has dropped, but the thesis is still intact, you still believe in it long term, hold or buy more.”
Listen at 16:40
Eli Lilly is the dominant GLP-1 company after beating Novo Nordisk.
“Eli Lilly is the dominant player in JLP1, having now convincingly beaten Novo.”
Listen at 18:24
Eli Lilly holds about 61% US GLP-1 market share versus Novo’s 39%.
“In the US, it has about 61% market share. Novo has about 39%.”
Listen at 19:59
Eli Lilly’s latest quarterly revenue grew 48%, versus Novo Nordisk’s 7%.
“In the most recent quarter, Eli Lilly's revenue was up 48%. Novo's was up 7%.”
Listen at 20:04
Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema lost a head-to-head trial against Eli Lilly’s drug.
“Novo's next generation drug called Cagrisima lost to Eli's current generation drug.”
Listen at 20:51
Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro is currently the world’s best-selling drug.
“Munjaro, which is Eli, is now the world's best selling drug.”
Listen at 21:24
GLP-1 use among US adults reached 11%, up from 3% in 2024.
“11% of US adults now take GLP-1. That's up from 3% in 2024 and only growing.”
Listen at 22:41
The GLP-1 market has a large runway, improving drugs, and Eli Lilly leads it.
“The market, total addressable market is big. The runway is there. The drugs are getting better. They're becoming more accessible. And Eli's the dominant player in the market.”
Listen at 23:27
Eli Lilly’s realized GLP-1 prices fell 13% globally and 9% in the US in Q2.
“In Q2, they realized prices fell 13% globally. They fell 9% in the US”
Listen at 24:01
Eli Lilly’s margins are improving despite falling prices.
“while prices are falling, margins are actually improving.”
Listen at 25:03
Eli Lilly currently trades at approximately 40 times earnings.
“It currently trades at like 40 times price to earnings.”
Listen at 25:27
Eli Lilly’s valuation implies roughly 9–11% annual profit growth for ten years.
“the market is roughly assuming sort of... nine to 11% profit growth for the next 10 years.”
Listen at 25:38
Eli Lilly will report earnings at the end of October.
“Eli Lilly will be reporting at the end of October.”
Listen at 26:11
Gold has performed well, while producer-share ETFs differ from physical-metal exposure.
“gold's performed well so maybe that's why but then on the other side people often make this mistake of buying an etf that is the shares of the metal producer.”
Listen at 32:32
Investors should simplify their ETF holdings.
“go simple is better on the ETF front.”
Listen at 37:20
Recent resource and thematic ETF performance is unlikely to continue at the same pace.
“I do not expect that to continue in the fashion that it has.”
Listen at 37:56
A simple geared portfolio may experience substantial volatility over 18 years.
“when you get such a long-term time horizon it's going to be a hell of a ride for the little man”
Listen at 39:06
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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