Oct 28, 2026 · 1h 14m
Anthropic’s IPO tests AI valuations as Rivian bets on simulation
Ep 62: $GOOGL, $MSFT & $HOOD Earnings, Anthropic IPO, $RIVN AI Deal
The discussion connects earnings, tax strategy, AI financing, and autonomous-driving technology to the harder question of how investors should price uncertain growth.
- 1Anthropic’s prospective IPO raises questions about whether rapid revenue growth creates a durable moat or invites model switching.
- 2Microsoft and Google delivered contrasting earnings signals, while Robinhood’s expanding product mix prompted concerns about strategic focus.
- 3Rivian’s tax-loss strategy and Third Dimension AI acquisition show how portfolio decisions and autonomy ambitions shape the investment case.
Don't miss
The hosts compare Anthropic and SpaceX across different time horizons, weighing AI momentum against Starlink, Starship, execution, and regulation.
The brief
Hamid Shojaee and Dustin Alper open with earnings, Anthropic’s potential IPO, and Rivian, where Dustin bought shares around $11.60 for a tax-loss harvesting strategy.
Microsoft beat on revenue and earnings, Google beat revenue but missed earnings, and Robinhood’s slowing top-line growth raised questions about whether its expanding product range lacks focus.
Anthropic’s filing prompts a debate over valuation, customer switching, and competitive moats, with the hosts weighing its near-term momentum against SpaceX’s longer-horizon businesses.
Rivian’s acquisition of Third Dimension AI, a UK team building controllable 3D simulations from driving data, becomes a test of its autonomous-driving ambitions.
Listener questions broaden the lens to AI hardware, Netflix, Google versus Meta, Apple’s touchscreen MacBook, and when valuation or changing conviction justifies taking profits.
The episode’s through line is disciplined uncertainty: distinguish a true exit from tax-loss harvesting or rebalancing, and judge growth against price, execution, and focus.
What was said on this episode
43 statements · 23 positive · 17 negative · 3 neutral
Dustin considers Rivian attractively priced around $11.60.
“But I really liked the price that it's at around $11.60.”
Listen at 1:42
Dustin considers $11.60 a fair price for Rivian shares.
“But I think $11.60 is a very fair price.”
Listen at 3:15
Robinhood’s growth has slowed despite sports betting’s expected growth role.
“It just seems like Robinhood's growth has slowed despite having this huge promise of the sports betting being a lever for growth.”
Listen at 11:00
Hamid considers Robinhood’s event contracting a strategic mistake.
“I think that event contracting was a strategic mistake, in my opinion.”
Listen at 13:00
Hamid expects to exit his Robinhood position over coming weeks or months.
“So I will probably be looking to exit that position over the coming years. weeks, months.”
Listen at 13:05
Being the best AI model rarely provides Anthropic a sustainable moat.
“it is rarely a sustainable moat to be the best”
Listen at 18:31
AI customers are willing to switch between competing models.
“customers are very willing to switch between different models.”
Listen at 18:57
Dustin believes Anthropic has virtually no competitive moat.
“they virtually have no moat, in my opinion.”
Listen at 19:29
Anthropic’s latest model is generally considered superior to competitors’ models.
“Anthropic's latest model is generally considered better than everybody else's.”
Listen at 19:44
Anthropic’s revenue growth has remained sustained and increased.
“their revenue growth has been sustained and growing”
Listen at 20:41
Hamid will not participate in Anthropic’s IPO.
“I'm not going to participate in the IPO.”
Listen at 22:05
Hamid would likely buy Anthropic only after its IPO.
“if I ever buy Anthropic, it'll probably be post IPO”
Listen at 22:07
Meta and Google could directly harm Anthropic’s business.
“there are other players that could potentially hurt Anthropic very directly.”
Listen at 23:15
Hamid believes AI is useful and not merely a fad.
“AI is useful. It's not a fad.”
Listen at 28:01
AI usage will be higher one year from now than today.
“More people are going to be using it a year from now than today.”
Listen at 28:03
Hamid would probably choose Anthropic over SpaceX as an investment.
“I'd probably buy Anthropic if I had to pick one.”
Listen at 29:13
Dustin prefers SpaceX over Anthropic over a ten-year horizon.
“for a longer time horizon, so like 10 years, I'd lean towards SpaceX.”
Listen at 30:52
Anthropic could face extremely burdensome regulation.
“it might mean that they're going to be regulated to death.”
Listen at 32:37
Anthropic could consume all available computing capacity.
“it could soak up all of the available compute for itself.”
Listen at 33:09
Hamid believes Rivian is executing its strategy effectively.
“I think Rivian... is executing really well”
Listen at 36:30
Rivian’s AI hiring should accelerate progress toward self-driving.
“adding additional AI talent that's going to accelerate their progress towards self-driving is absolutely the right thing to be doing.”
Listen at 36:34
Hamid remains optimistic about Rivian.
“I continue to be excited for Rivian.”
Listen at 37:21
Successful AI-first hardware products will be copied by competitors.
“whatever succeeds, everyone will copy.”
Listen at 42:51
Winning physical AI-first products will require screens and strong AI models.
“whatever is going to win in terms of a physical, AI first product is going to need a screen and a really strong AI model behind it”
Listen at 43:17
Amazon’s Bee device may not become meaningful to Amazon.
“I don't know if this is going to really be anything too meaningful for them.”
Listen at 44:04
Hamid would choose Rivian over Ouster as an investment.
“Why would I invest in that company as opposed to Rivian?”
Listen at 45:54
Hamid would pass on investing in Ouster.
“I would pass on them.”
Listen at 46:39
Cerebras’s current market capitalization already reflects its potential.
“I feel like all of its potential is already baked into its current market cap.”
Listen at 48:44
Dustin is not interested in investing in Cerebras.
“it's just not a stock I am interested in.”
Listen at 49:47
Nvidia trades at a lower P/E ratio than Cerebras’s projected valuation.
“you can buy NVIDIA at a price earnings ratio of lower than that right now.”
Listen at 50:56
Hamid says the S&P 500’s return to 7,100–7,200 cannot be known.
“there's no way to know whether or not it's going to go to 7100 to 7200.”
Listen at 52:31
Hamid considers Netflix’s valuation relatively low.
“Netflix is getting really low valuation again.”
Listen at 53:37
Netflix could exceed $100 per share within a year because it appears undervalued.
“if we were to sort of like fast forward a year from now and you told me Netflix is over $100 a share, that would not surprise me because it does feel undervalued.”
Listen at 54:31
AI-generated short-form entertainment may benefit competitors more than Netflix.
“AI is also creating entertainment, which, you know, Netflix doesn't really benefit from because it's in this short format”
Listen at 56:40
Hamid considers Google’s 8.5% after-hours decline an overreaction.
“I think that's an overreaction, the 8.5%.”
Listen at 57:41
Hamid believes Google lacks a cohesive AI strategy.
“I just don't think Google has a very good, cohesive AI strategy”
Listen at 58:25
Hamid considers Meta’s Muse AI product highly successful.
“that product is knocking it out of the park.”
Listen at 59:29
Hamid remains unenthusiastic about investing in Google after its decline.
“I'm not excited about Google, even minus 8% or 9%.”
Listen at 59:52
Hamid considers Apple’s touchscreen MacBook strategy smart.
“I think it's smart for them to have a touchscreen MacBook.”
Listen at 1:05:32
Dustin expects touchscreen MacBooks to help Apple’s business.
“I think it's only going to help their business, not hurt them.”
Listen at 1:06:27
Hamid considers Micron extremely undervalued currently.
“micron feels extremely undervalued right now”
Listen at 1:09:40
Hamid believes Micron’s appropriate valuation could be roughly double its current level.
“if it was roughly double, that seems like the appropriate valuation, maybe even higher than that.”
Listen at 1:09:51
Hamid will probably trim Micron as its valuation approaches his target.
“And as it starts to approach that, I'll probably trim some.”
Listen at 1:09:58
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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