Nov 5, 2026 · 55 min
A midterm sweep could reorder markets and U.S. strategy
MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics
The discussion connects a possible Democratic congressional takeover to uncertainty over wars, fiscal policy, the dollar, energy, and America’s global role.
- 1A congressional sweep could constrain U.S. foreign policy while weakening confidence in America as the global security guarantor.
- 2Markets may respond unevenly, with gold supported by uncertainty, oil losing geopolitical premium, and technology stocks outperforming broader equities.
- 3Gridlock could become constitutional conflict as impeachment, executive action, Supreme Court involvement, and the debt ceiling enter the market calculus.
Don't miss
Michael Every reframes divided government as a possible constitutional confrontation rather than predictable gridlock, with direct consequences for markets.
The brief
Michael Every argues that a Democratic congressional takeover would be a geopolitical event, not merely a domestic election result, potentially constraining U.S. foreign policy and changing calculations around Iran and Ukraine.
The conversation tests the tension between domestic priorities and strategic power: proposals to pause data-center construction could address local energy costs while weakening the U.S. position in the AI race.
Gold’s strength, the dollar’s weakness, and oil’s sharp decline become competing signals of uncertainty, as markets weigh political risk against the possibility that wars and supply disruptions ease.
Every challenges the idea that divided government guarantees benign gridlock, pointing instead to impeachment, executive action, Supreme Court involvement, and a possible constitutional confrontation.
The discussion widens from markets to a world without the U.S. as global policeman, covering refining capacity, fertilizer, agriculture, tariffs, and the limits of the old strategic playbook.
What was said on this episode
32 statements · 9 positive · 19 negative · 1 mixed · 3 neutral
U.S. political changes will produce broader international geopolitical changes.
“what happens in America doesn't stay in America. And if things are going to be changing in America, they're going to change for everyone else too.”
Listen at 1:48
Congressional opposition could greatly constrain U.S. geopolitical action.
“It means that the U.S. is a greatly constrained geopolitical actor, were that to be true.”
Listen at 3:31
A U.S. Middle East pullback would not support lower energy prices short term.
“In neither case, at least short term, does that make an argument for lower energy prices.”
Listen at 5:39
Israeli nuclear use is an extremely unlikely near-term risk.
“it's certainly not something that I think we need to lose too much sleep over, at least not for the moment.”
Listen at 7:01
A geopolitical split from the U.S. would push Israel toward alternative allies such as India.
“Israel is going to look for other allies. And one of them, I would imagine, would be India”
Listen at 7:49
U.S. national-security policy will seek to prevent China from leading the AI race.
“China can't be allowed to get ahead in this Sputnik. style or manhattan project style race”
Listen at 9:09
China could gain AI leadership if U.S. data-center construction is halted.
“China may pick up that ball and run with it, and then the world looks very different.”
Listen at 10:10
Abundant cheap power, likely from new nuclear capacity, will remain necessary for AI.
“if you do have the ability to at least provide abundant cheap power, which as you said, would logically have to come from some new nuclear kind of mechanism, that speaks to me for a necessity which isn't going to go away.”
Listen at 11:41
Future Democratic spending bills are likely to be generous.
“I think they're going to be quite generous, given that the Democrats will be putting them forward.”
Listen at 12:54
A destructive Congress-president confrontation would harm many people.
“if Washington gets caught in a navel-gazing, kind of finger-jabbing, self-destructive cycle of both sides trying to outlaw and crush the other one, rather than finding any way to collaborate, it's obviously bad for a great many people.”
Listen at 15:18
A congressional showdown over war powers could create an enormous geopolitical shock.
“the potential geopolitical shock here is enormous.”
Listen at 19:03
Markets may reject both heightened Trumpism and its absence amid geopolitical risk.
“the market's still saying we don't like that either.”
Listen at 20:35
Trump now has a higher-than-before chance of launching a limited Iran action and retreating.
“there is obviously now, I think, a higher chance than previously that Trump does this taco slash the whole enchilada.”
Listen at 23:46
A limited U.S. Iran action would not sustainably lower energy prices.
“I don't think that is going to bring energy prices down sustainably the way that the U.S. would like to see.”
Listen at 24:01
Continued attacks on Russian refineries would raise the relevant refining crack spread.
“It can only be bullish for that particular crack spread.”
Listen at 25:52
Tariffs are historically a primary means of reindustrializing an economy.
“tariffs are historically, as neomecantilist history shows, pretty much the only way, alongside other aspects of industrial policy, that you're going to re-industrialize.”
Listen at 32:59
Removing tariffs would accelerate America’s decline as global hegemon.
“you are accelerating the decline of America as global hegemon.”
Listen at 33:39
The collapse of U.S.-backed global order would sharply increase international crime rates.
“international crime rates soar.”
Listen at 37:13
Trump will not obtain a constitutionally permitted third presidential term.
“Constitutionally, somehow, that's simply not going to happen.”
Listen at 37:56
A breakaway third party could emerge but has effectively no chance of gaining power.
“there's a very clear possibility of that kind of third party emerging, and there's a 0% probability of that getting anywhere near any power.”
Listen at 40:42
The election has greatly widened the range of probable political and market outcomes.
“we have a glide path with a vastly wider range of probable outcomes.”
Listen at 41:27
Continued refinery attacks could constrain refining capacity despite falling crude prices.
“Continued attacks on refineries could keep refining capacity contained even if crude prices retreat.”
Listen at 44:06
Marathon Petroleum fell approximately $116, or 23%, peak to trough over 16 days.
“Over just 16 days, the stock has declined approximately $116 or 23% peak to trough”
Listen at 44:31
Marathon Petroleum’s recent sell-off may have overshot fair value.
“The opportunity is to express the view that this sell-off represents an overshoot.”
Listen at 44:42
The AI trade is continuing its correction.
“the AI trade continues to correct.”
Listen at 47:50
NASDAQ recovery above its 50-day average would be meaningfully bullish.
“I would view that it would be meaningfully bullish if the NASDAQ was able to reclaim its 50-day moving average and resume its trend”
Listen at 48:06
Oil’s post-election sell-off is a major overshoot.
“in my mind, this is a big overshoot.”
Listen at 49:23
The dollar remains suitable for buying on dips.
“this still has all the characteristics of a buy-on dip.”
Listen at 51:00
A major imminent peace deal is the main condition for a significant dollar breakdown.
“the only meaningful reason why the dollar could actually break down here is if this oil breakdown was correct and a big peace deal was imminent.”
Listen at 51:04
Bond traders do not believe the election has dynamically changed the macro regime.
“bond traders are not convinced that something has dynamically changed.”
Listen at 51:38
“in my mind, this is an oversold bounce.”
Listen at 53:26
Gold’s recent rebound does not yet demonstrate a new bull market.
“I don't think that there's any evidence here that a new bull market has started.”
Listen at 53:57
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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