Oct 9, 2026 · 1h 31m
Listen from 1:19:46
Listen at 1:19:46
Abundance meets AI risk and a volatile election map
Derek Thompson and Adam Carlson: The Republicans' Strength Is Now Their Weakness
The episode connects voters’ economic frustration and Democratic electoral hopes to a larger debate over state capacity, technological risk, and polling reliability.
- 1Derek Thompson argues that abundance means rebuilding capacity in housing, energy, science, and government—not merely promoting a political brand.
- 2The AI boom could reshape growth and infrastructure while intensifying concerns about crowding out, safety, cyber risk, and control.
- 3Adam Carlson sees localized electoral swings, Republican nonresponse, and weak nominees complicating forecasts across Senate and House races.
Don't miss
Thompson and Miller confront the possibility that AI companies are building systems they recognize as dangerous, while continuing to pursue rapid expansion.
The brief
Derek Thompson argues that Democrats’ potential overperformance would expose a deeper political opening: voters want economic relief, but also proof that government can deliver.
Thompson defines abundance as a governing project centered on housing, energy, science, and public capacity, with permitting reform as a test of whether the state can build.
The AI discussion moves from bubble anxiety to harder questions about infrastructure, economic displacement, cyber and biosecurity risks, and whether companies can control systems they keep advancing.
Adam Carlson explains why Republican nonresponse and regional sampling problems have distorted polls, then maps a volatile Senate and House landscape shaped by weak nominees and uneven local swings.
The episode’s throughline is institutional capacity: governments must build and earn trust while campaigns, pollsters, and technology companies confront limits they have repeatedly underestimated.
What was said on this episode
54 statements · 17 positive · 24 negative · 6 mixed · 7 neutral
Thompson predicts Democrats will perform strongly in November.
“It really looks like Democrats. I'm knocking on wood. are going to have a strong night in November.”
Listen at 3:52
Thompson predicts Democrats will win many Senate seats.
“I think they're going to win a lot of Senate seats.”
Listen at 3:57
“I think there's going to be this big open question of like, OK, here's the next generation of Democrats.”
Listen at 5:03
Thompson predicts Ossoff will emerge as a highly promising Democratic candidate if he wins decisively.
“I would predict essentially that Ossoff, especially if he turns out to win like plus 10, plus 11 in an environment where most of the rest of the party is winning at like plus three, plus four, is just going to seem like a really, really promising candidate”
Listen at 6:35
Thompson predicts Ossoff could lead the 2028 Democratic nomination field.
“I can absolutely see him going into 2027 in poll position for the presidential nomination, if he so desires.”
Listen at 7:01
Thompson argues Republican identity now harms them while Democratic decentralization helps.
“The Republicans' strength has become their weakness. The Democrats' weakness has become their strength.”
Listen at 8:20
Thompson argues Trump-centered Republicanism has reduced the party’s popularity.
“The fact that the Republican Party is a cult revolving around Trump has dragged down their popularity below that which you would have expected just looking at inflation and macro environments.”
Listen at 8:24
Thompson identifies real wage growth as the strongest indicator of incumbent-party electoral performance.
“Probably the single most significant economic indicator to predict whether the incumbent party is going to win, hold, or lose seats is real wage growth.”
Listen at 10:46
Thompson states real wage growth has been negative for several quarters.
“Real wage growth has been negative. for the last few quarters”
Listen at 11:02
Thompson argues Trump’s Middle East war increased gas prices.
“Donald Trump, running on no more wars in the Middle East, decided to wage war in the Middle East and drove up the price of gas so high”
Listen at 11:16
Thompson argues mortgage rates above 7% discourage home purchases and moves.
“Mortgages going over seven is not just, again, a family event discouraging people from buying a home”
Listen at 12:36
Thompson argues Trump administration tariffs raised economy-wide input and import prices.
“the first thing they did is mechanically raise the price of every single input in the economy or import. via the tariffs.”
Listen at 13:28
Thompson states grocery and energy prices rose about three times faster than in the 2010s.
“between 2020 and 2026, consumer prices have been rising for groceries, for energy about three times faster than the 2010s rate.”
Listen at 15:15
Thompson states the Federal Reserve raised rates faster than ever before.
“the Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates faster than any period in its history.”
Listen at 16:12
Thompson identifies housing, energy, science, and state capacity as abundance priorities.
“The point was there's a handful of problems in the U.S. economy in terms of housing production, in terms of energy production, in terms of scientific progress and state capacity”
Listen at 20:17
Thompson says both parties increasingly agree America builds housing and energy too slowly.
“The idea that Republicans and Democrats are coming together to say America is moving too slowly to build public goods like housing and energy”
Listen at 22:42
Thompson argues governments must demonstrate effective service before expanding services.
“if you want to grow, government services, you have to prove the government can serve in the first place.”
Listen at 26:07
Thompson estimates Anthropic and OpenAI annualized revenue at about $120 billion combined.
“Ananthropic is about $75 billion, and OpenAI is about $50 billion. So collectively, you're looking at about $120 billion.”
Listen at 33:40
Thompson predicts AI competition will pressure company profitability.
“these companies are going to struggle to make as much money.”
Listen at 34:39
Thompson states OpenAI and Anthropic seek $1–2 trillion valuations despite lacking profitability.
“these companies want to go public at trillions of dollars, between one and two trillion dollars as a valuation. Neither of them are profitable.”
Listen at 34:42
Thompson doubts AI revenue can reach $2–3 trillion by 2030.
“It is hard to imagine this economy growing to something like $2 or $3 trillion by 2030. It's very, very hard to imagine.”
Listen at 37:31
Thompson argues AI is increasing living costs for ordinary people.
“AI is almost certainly making your life more expensive.”
Listen at 40:37
Thompson argues AI infrastructure demand increases inflation through input costs.
“AI is increasing inflation because the AI companies, the companies building this technology need GPUs and memory chips and electricians and everything else that goes into a data center.”
Listen at 40:44
Thompson argues AI-driven stock gains increase consumer demand and inflation.
“AI is also increasing the wealth effect.”
Listen at 41:06
Thompson relays an unproven argument that AI borrowing raises long-term interest rates.
“there is an argument, unproven, but there is an argument that the debt that these large companies need to build AI is competing with the debt that the US government needs, and that is increasing long-term interest rates as well.”
Listen at 41:34
Thompson says many advanced-AI experts fear poor legibility, traceability, and cyber risks.
“An extraordinary share of the very few number of people who can actually see the most advanced AI models in the world are freaked out about Legibility? Do we even understand what they're doing? Traceability? Can we track where they go? Cyber risk?”
Listen at 44:36
Open-weight AI models can enable devastating cyberattacks.
“models like this, especially open weight, meaning not proprietary, people can futz with the weights, can be used to do devastating hacks”
Listen at 44:59
Thompson warns open-weight AI models could enable harmful biological manipulation.
“open weight models can be used to manipulate biology, viruses, and bacteria and cook up super drugs that make a lot of people sick.”
Listen at 45:08
Thompson rejects the view that AI is conscious like humans.
“I do not think AI is. conscious as we are conscious.”
Listen at 50:18
Consciousness may exist on a spectrum rather than as a binary category.
“I think we might discover that it's more like a spectrum, like the difference between a child and an adult.”
Listen at 51:11
Thompson believes consciousness is more likely a spectrum than a binary category.
“My bet is that it's more like a spectrum than it is like a hard category.”
Listen at 53:02
Thompson assesses current AI as software rather than living people.
“I think this is software. I don't think it is life. It's computers, not people.”
Listen at 54:19
Carlson says polling could underestimate either Democrats or Republicans this cycle.
“I think there's a good case to be made for polls underestimating Democrats as there is for polls underestimating Republicans.”
Listen at 1:02:04
Carlson assesses Republican voters as unusually reluctant to participate in polls.
“Republicans are just much less excited to take polls right now.”
Listen at 1:03:55
Carlson predicts economically angry Midwestern voters will vote Republican or abstain.
“my gut says, particularly in the Midwest, right, where there are a lot of folks who are being hammered by tariffs, beef imports, diesel prices. who are just like really just trying to make ends meet and really pissed, but don't like Democrats, but are probably going to end up voting for Republicans or staying home.”
Listen at 1:05:55
Carlson’s South Dakota poll showed Trump leading by 25 points.
“the poll, which I was, you know, very conservatively weighted, you know, wanted it to be very, you know, pretty bulletproof from a methodological perspective, Trump plus 25.”
Listen at 1:06:36
Carlson reports Trump’s Republican approval rating was 73–27 in South Dakota polling.
“Trump's approval rating among Republicans was 73 to 27”
Listen at 1:06:45
Carlson’s South Dakota poll showed Mike Rounds ahead by six points.
“It had rounds up by six points”
Listen at 1:07:15
Carlson says pollsters face greater reputational downside from an outlier miss than benefit from success.
“the downside potential of having an outlier miss. I think is higher than having one that succeeds.”
Listen at 1:09:52
“if I had to pick today, that's my pick. The ones I'm least sure about.”
Listen at 1:11:37
Carlson predicts Sherrod Brown would win Ohio but views it as Democrats’ weakest lean race.
“I would pick Sherrod today, but of those lean Dems, that is probably the one I feel least good about.”
Listen at 1:12:11
Carlson predicts Ashley Hinson will win Iowa’s Senate race.
“I would pick Hinson today.”
Listen at 1:12:36
Carlson predicts Rob Sand will likely win Iowa’s governor’s race.
“Rob Sand is likely going to win that governor's race.”
Listen at 1:12:59
Republicans could lose Texas’s 23rd congressional district.
“this is one where Republicans could easily cough it up”
Listen at 1:15:59
Carlson predicts Republicans could lose Texas’s 23rd District because of their nominee.
“this is one where Republicans could easily cough it up rather than Democrats, like, you know, having a tour de force performance.”
Listen at 1:15:59
Carlson assesses Colorado Republicans as severely weakened in a strongly Democratic state.
“the Republican Party in Colorado almost couldn't be worse. It is a cobalt blue state, and the Republican Party is in complete disrepair.”
Listen at 1:19:16
Carlson reports Eileen Laubacher held over ten times Lauren Boebert’s cash on hand.
“the Democrat, Laubacher, had over 10 times as much cash on hand as Boebert.”
Listen at 1:19:46
Carlson predicts Democrats could win 240–250 House seats in a severe wave.
“in the House, it could be like 240, 250 without really breaking a sweat if things get really bad and polls are underestimating Democrats.”
Listen at 1:20:49
Carlson views Colorado’s fourth district as more favorable to Democrats than the third.
“I think that in some ways I feel better for Democrats in the fourth district and Boebert's district than the third”
Listen at 1:22:41
Carlson assesses Democrats as making unusually large gains in deeply Republican areas.
“Democrats are making outsized gains in deep red states and deep red districts”
Listen at 1:24:14
The left and DSA offer a solution for Democrats in swing districts and states.
“the left and DSA are the solution in swing districts and states.”
Listen at 1:25:46
Carlson identifies several left-leaning candidates as tests of Democratic overperformance.
“I think that there's a couple of interesting test cases for this for relative. over-performance, under-performance.”
Listen at 1:25:51
Carlson argues the populist progressive left effectively channels economic frustration.
“the left and the populist progressive left is doing a really good job articulating the economic frustration. And anger and channeling that and people are responding to that.”
Listen at 1:27:11
Carlson argues the populist progressive left is culturally out of step with voters.
“I think they're also pretty wildly out of touch on cultural, social issues and how people talk about things.”
Listen at 1:27:31
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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