Oct 28, 2026 · 15 min
Democrats test independent candidates in red-state Senate races
Why some Dems back independent candidates for Senate
The Montana and Nebraska contests show whether Democrats can rebuild rural support by backing candidates who distance themselves from the party.
- 1Montana’s fractured three-way race contrasts with Nebraska Democrats’ coordinated support for independent Dan Osborne.
- 2Independent candidates may attract disaffected Trump voters, but Democratic backing complicates their claims of autonomy.
- 3The races test whether Democrats can develop a durable rural strategy beyond relying on structural Senate changes.
Don't miss
A Montana voter who previously supported Trump says Sam Forstag’s working-class identity and willingness to challenge the establishment earned his vote.
The brief
The hosts examine Democrats’ effort to compete in Republican-leaning Montana and Nebraska, where independent candidates offer different answers to the party’s rural problem.
Montana’s three-way Senate race has made the Democratic candidate look like a spoiler, while Nebraska Democrats have rallied behind independent Dan Osborne against Pete Ricketts.
The central tension is credibility: candidates backed by Democrats must appear independent while facing attacks over caucusing, committee assignments, and Senate leverage.
Sam Forstag’s campaign offers a possible rural playbook, pairing a working-class identity and anti-establishment message with an attempt to win over disappointed Trump voters.
The episode argues that Democrats’ rural rebuild will require competing everywhere, tailoring messages to each state, and confronting a divide increasingly framed as elites versus everyone else.
What was said on this episode
5 statements · 3 positive · 1 negative · 1 neutral
Seth Bodnar is polling ahead of Montana’s Democratic Senate candidate.
“the Independent, Seth Bodnar, who used to be the president of the University of Montana, he is outpolling the Democrat there”
Listen at 1:47
The Democratic brand has become toxic in Montana since the Biden era.
“The brand has become so toxic in places like Montana, especially since the Biden era when we had the pandemic and the beginnings of inflation.”
Listen at 3:51
Sam Forstag is running as an economic populist.
“he's running as an economic populist”
Listen at 7:46
Sam Forstag calls for new people to enter Congress and change it.
“he's calling for new people to sweep into Congress and change things.”
Listen at 8:41
Anti-establishment sentiment may be the main force shaping this year’s toss-up races.
“Anti-establishment versus status quo. Throw these guys out. And I think that is going to be maybe the prime dynamic shaping a lot of these toss-up races this year.”
Listen at 11:55
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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