Oct 19, 2026 · 19 min
Fed uncertainty keeps mortgage rates and housing sales under pressure
How many Fed rate hikes are left?
The path of future rate hikes depends on competing forces in monetary policy, inflation, energy prices, geopolitical conflict, and bond markets.
- 1Hawkish Federal Reserve officials and higher energy prices could keep rate pressure elevated despite unresolved economic risks.
- 2AI data-center investment is reshaping inflation, bond yields, local politics, and the broader debate over monetary policy.
- 3Elevated mortgage rates may prolong weak year-over-year sales, making seasonal inventory and early preparation for 2027 increasingly important.
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Logan Mohtashami identifies AI investment and ongoing conflict as major forces driving interest rates, despite their unpopularity.
The brief
Sarah Wheeler and housing analyst Logan Mohtashami examine how many Federal Reserve rate hikes may remain, with inflation, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks complicating the answer.
The discussion links large-scale AI data-center investment to inflation, bond yields, local moratoriums, stock-market weakness, and possible political backlash ahead of the midterm elections.
Mohtashami argues that AI investment and ongoing conflict are major forces driving rates, while uncertainty over timing leaves the Federal Reserve’s next moves difficult to assess.
Beth Hammack and Lori Logan emerge as important influences on bond yields, as higher energy prices, mortgage rates, and the dollar complicate trade-policy choices.
The episode closes with a housing tracker showing continued sales weakness at elevated mortgage rates, seasonal inventory shifts, and a warning to prepare for 2027.
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