Nov 1, 2026 · 1h 5m
Listen from 42:39
Listen at 42:39
Final polls map a volatile path to control of Congress
What the Final Polls Tell Us
With Election Day near, the episode tests what polling, early voting, and bellwether races can—and cannot—reveal about control of the House and Senate.
- 1Democrats appeared positioned for a House majority, potentially without winning the contests rated closest.
- 2Senate control hinged on competitive races in states including Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and Iowa.
- 3Early voting offered clues about turnout but remained too ambiguous to replace polling or election-night results.
Don't miss
Harry Enten explains why Kentucky’s Sixth could provide an early read on the night, while warning that early-vote patterns are easy to misinterpret.
The brief
Two days before the midterms, Harry Enten joins Tommy Vietor to assess the historical headwinds facing the president’s party—and the polling errors that shaped the Trump era.
The House outlook looks unusually favorable to Democrats: race ratings suggested they could reach a majority without winning every toss-up, with Kentucky’s Sixth serving as an early bellwether.
The Senate map is less forgiving, stretching from Texas and Michigan to Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and Iowa, where candidate strength, polling misses, and state-level dynamics collide.
The conversation widens to governor’s races and long-shot Senate opportunities, showing how split-ticket voting and deep partisan polarization can produce different outcomes on the same ballot.
Enten cautions that early voting data can describe when people vote without showing how many additional votes they represent, then explains when results may become clear.
The closing discussion turns to response bias and declining survey participation, asking how polling and election analytics must evolve before 2028.
What was said on this episode
29 statements · 17 positive · 9 negative · 1 mixed · 2 neutral
The president’s party will probably lose House seats in the midterm election.
“It would be highly unusual for the White House Party not to lose at least some seats going into. a midterm election.”
Listen at 7:00
Democrats could regain the House majority relatively easily.
“the historical comparisons that we have to this midterm in terms of the president's unpopularity suggest that it's quite the possibility that Democrats don't just take back the House, but take it back. rather easily”
Listen at 8:17
Polls have underestimated Republican strength by four points in close Senate races.
“there has been an underestimation of Republican strength. It's been four points on average in close Senate races.”
Listen at 10:23
Democrats outperformed final polling in every close Senate race in 2022.
“in 2022, the last midterm that we had, in fact, what you saw was that in 100% of the races, in which they were the close Senate races, right? Five points on either side. The Democrats outperformed their final polling in all of them.”
Listen at 11:07
Democrats are more likely to win at least 225 House seats than be capped at 225.
“the 225. sort of almost feels much more like a floor than it does like a ceiling.”
Listen at 13:18
Democrats could win more than 240 House seats.
“I really would not be surprised. By north of 240”
Listen at 14:03
The Texas Senate polls showing Tallarico strength are credible.
“I actually believe those polls.”
Listen at 23:06
Ken Paxton is Texas’s least popular Republican Senate nominee this century.
“Ken Paxton is the least popular GOP nominee. for the Senate in Texas this entire century.”
Listen at 23:17
Michigan voters prioritizing Israel are more likely to support Abdul El-Sayed.
“voters who say that Israel is their top policy or say it's, you know, an extremely important vote, they're more likely to support El-Sayed.”
Listen at 26:19
Abdul El-Sayed has higher favorability than Mike Rogers.
“El-Sayed's favorables are higher than Mike Rogers' favorables.”
Listen at 26:25
Alaska is difficult for Democrats to win statewide.
“This to me, It's a tough state to win if you're a Democrat.”
Listen at 29:57
The Alaska controversy may reduce Mary Peltola’s support by one or two points.
“my baseline is maybe you take a point or two off of Patola”
Listen at 31:54
Ohio is among the states where polling deserves the most skepticism.
“Ohio is one of those states where, again, If I were ranking the list, I would put Ohio closer to the top of the list of where I'm the most skeptical of the polling data.”
Listen at 37:40
Sherrod Brown is more likely than not to win the Ohio Senate race.
“I still think Sherrod Brown's more likely to win than not”
Listen at 38:43
Susan Collins outperformed her polls by at least five points in three elections.
“the last three election cycles. So this is dating back 2020, 2014, 2008. She's outperformed her polls, and not just by a little bit, but I think in each of those cases, it was at least five points, if not double digits”
Listen at 39:39
Democrats could win the Iowa Senate race.
“I think Democrats could win there. I think Josh Church could win there.”
Listen at 43:29
Split-ticket outcomes remain plausible in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, and Ohio.
“I wouldn't be surprised by, you know, split verdicts. Texas is an example where I wouldn't be surprised by a split verdict. I wouldn't be surprised that it would be in Kansas. I wouldn't be surprised of it in Iowa. I wouldn't be shocked by it in Ohio, although I think they'll probably both go Dem.”
Listen at 45:32
Kansas is the most likely listed state for a Democratic Senate flip.
“I mean, I think Kansas is the one that's most likely to flip.”
Listen at 49:22
Roger Marshall is Kansas’s least popular Republican Senate nominee this century.
“Roger Marshall, the least popular Republican Senate nominee in Kansas, is laying a campaign this century for sure.”
Listen at 50:17
A Democrat can reach 45–47% in South Carolina but may not reach 50%.
“I see a Democrat getting to 45, 46, 47% of the vote. The question is, can you really get to 50%?”
Listen at 52:13
Black turnout is significantly higher in the early vote.
“when I look at the early vote data, it's definitely the case that I see that black turnout is up significantly.”
Listen at 53:58
Higher Black turnout benefits Democrats.
“Democrats don't lose when black turnout goes higher”
Listen at 55:16
Early-vote data has not contradicted the polling.
“there's been nothing inconsistent. with what I see in the polling, with what I see in the early vote data.”
Listen at 56:44
The percentage of voters casting ballots by mail will decline this year.
“The one thing I will point out is that I do think the percentage of people voting by mail will be down this year.”
Listen at 57:39
The election may be resolved relatively quickly rather than taking days.
“this may actually be a quote unquote early night. That is, it won't last days.”
Listen at 59:19
The election’s direction will likely be clear by 2–3 a.m.
“I think 2, 3 a.m., we should. We will very likely know what is going on.”
Listen at 59:50
Horse-race polling has not become less accurate over time.
“horse race polling, it actually hasn't become less accurate over time, really.”
Listen at 1:01:39
Combining more data sources generally improves election analysis.
“the more data that you have in there, the better.”
Listen at 1:02:41
Polling data from anonymous inexperienced pollsters should not be used.
“I don't necessarily think that the individual who has no experience of this and isn't willing to show their face that I'm not going to use their data.”
Listen at 1:03:15
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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