Nov 2, 2026 · 1h 18m
Midterm stakes collide with Iran war fears and Republican losses
Bill Kristol and JVL: Trump Could Be More Dangerous Post-Election
The discussion links election outcomes to risks of unauthorized military escalation, election subversion, and widening political fallout over Israel and Gaza.
- 1Bill Kristol and Tim Miller warn that an Iran escalation could produce a devastating war without congressional authorization.
- 2Polling and race analysis point to Democratic gains, while Republican candidates and campaign decisions expose broader party weaknesses.
- 3Haley Stevens’s political turmoil becomes a case study in personal grievance, credibility loss, and the volatile politics surrounding Israel and Gaza.
Don't miss
Jonathan V. Last and Tim Miller reconstruct Haley Stevens’s political breakdown and debate whether it reflects principle, spite, manipulation, or crisis.
The brief
Tim Miller and Bill Kristol open with the midterm stakes, then warn that a proposed escalation against Iran could become a disastrous, unauthorized war involving strikes on nuclear facilities.
The hosts examine election-security threats, localized voting problems, redistricting, and the possibility that Republicans could pursue broader post-election subversion if results go against them.
Polling and race-by-race analysis suggest Democratic gains, while vulnerable Republicans and Donald Trump’s candidate choices expose a party struggling to campaign effectively.
Jonathan V. Last joins Miller to dissect Haley Stevens’s shifting endorsements, staff departures, television appearances, and relationship with Jason Turkish, which they say damaged her credibility.
The conversation broadens into antisemitism, Islamophobia, Gaza, and Israel’s alignment with Trump, with the hosts debating how those issues are reshaping American politics.
What was said on this episode
34 statements · 14 positive · 17 negative · 3 neutral
Bill Kristol says Trump’s Iran actions could constitute war crimes and dangerous escalation.
“you can't just sit there and let him do stuff that, as Chris Murphy says, is war crimes and really a dangerous escalation.”
Listen at 7:34
Bill Kristol says officials should refuse an unjustified order to use nuclear weapons.
“I don't think people should obey that order.”
Listen at 9:27
Bill Kristol says Trump should be impeached and convicted for using nuclear weapons against Iran.
“I think he would have to be impeached and hopefully convicted if he did that.”
Listen at 9:30
Bill Kristol says nuclear weapons are almost certainly unnecessary against Iranian facilities.
“It's almost inconceivable that there's an actual military need for it.”
Listen at 9:43
Bill Kristol says Trump has a nonzero chance of attempting nuclear weapons use.
“there's not a 0% chance that Trump will try to use nuclear weapons”
Listen at 10:13
Tim Miller predicts Trump’s administration will continue discussing expansionist and extreme actions.
“I think that all of that craziness is going to be bandied about this White House the next two years.”
Listen at 10:54
Bill Kristol remains worried about post-election subversion in close red-state contests.
“I've been an alarmist on election subversion. I remain worried about tomorrow, worried about what could happen the day or two after in very, very close counts in red states.”
Listen at 13:35
Bill Kristol predicts a Democratic-led Senate will seat Mary Peltola.
“the Senate probably is going to have Chuck Schumer as majority leader or a Democrat in any case, not John Thune. So they're going to seat Peltola.”
Listen at 14:39
Bill Kristol predicts a substantial Democratic midterm wave.
“I think it probably is what it looks like, which is a pretty big wave.”
Listen at 21:38
Bill Kristol says a strong Democrat can defeat a slightly unfavorable Republican in a favorable environment.
“A Democrat beats a minus one Republican”
Listen at 23:02
Tim Miller says candidate branding and positioning materially affect red-state Democratic performance.
“Hamilton and Sand both show the degree to which, you know, kind of branding and positioning and communications really matters”
Listen at 24:07
Bill Kristol predicts normally campaigning Republicans will lose in the current environment.
“the Republicans who have run normal campaigns, I think are going to lose.”
Listen at 27:28
Bill Kristol predicts Tallarico and Hamilton will win their races decisively.
“I think Tallarico and Hamilton are going to win big.”
Listen at 28:11
Bill Kristol predicts Democrats will win both chambers of Congress.
“I feel like Democrats win both houses”
Listen at 29:58
Bill Kristol says Republican survival in several states depends on a large Election Day turnout advantage.
“The Republican thesis that they're going to survive in places like Florida, South Carolina, obviously Texas, Mississippi, I would say, depends a lot on Republican, a pretty big Republican advantage on election day.”
Listen at 31:18
“I think we'll know whether Annie Andrews is going to win, lose, or be in a very, very super tight race for Senate from South Carolina by 8.30 or something like that”
Listen at 36:22
Bill Kristol forecasts Democrats winning approximately 55 Senate seats.
“I think at this point, I'm closer to 55 just as a pure analytic matter than like 51 or 52.”
Listen at 37:55
Bill Kristol predicts Amy Acton will defeat Vivek Ramaswamy for governor.
“I'm just going to think Amy Acton's going to beat Vivek.”
Listen at 38:04
Bill Kristol says Democrats could control governorships in 12–14 largest states.
“It would be unbelievable if Democrats end up with 12 or 13 or 14 of the 14 largest states as governor.”
Listen at 38:26
Tim Miller predicts Democrats will win approximately 240 House seats.
“I do think the Democrats love 240 house seats”
Listen at 40:20
Tim Miller predicts Democrats will achieve a Senate majority.
“I think that the Democrats will get to a Fetterman majority.”
Listen at 42:06
Tim Miller predicts Abdul El-Sayed will win Michigan’s Senate race by over six points.
“I think that Abdul El-Sad wins by more than six.”
Listen at 45:22
Jonathan Last assesses Haley Stevens’s behavior as resembling a mental breakdown.
“this looks like somebody having a mental breakdown.”
Listen at 51:01
Jonathan Last says Haley Stevens appears erratic and unreliable in decision-making.
“she just looks like somebody who is erratic and can't be trusted.”
Listen at 53:47
Jonathan Last assesses Mike Rogers’s campaign as exceptionally bigoted and racialist.
“Mike Rogers has run, as you and I have said, like the most explicitly bigoted and racialist campaign, like since I don't know, Jim Crow.”
Listen at 55:10
Tim Miller predicts Stevens’s endorsement will not affect the Michigan Senate race.
“I don't think it's going to make any difference.”
Listen at 1:05:32
Jonathan Last says Stevens’s conduct may increase Democratic unity and turnout.
“I actually think it probably helps with democratic unity and democratic turnout”
Listen at 1:06:04
Jonathan Last predicts Abdul El-Sayed will win Michigan’s Senate race comfortably.
“he's going to win, and I think he's going to win by, like, running away.”
Listen at 1:07:38
Tim Miller says Israel-Palestine politics is deeply unhealthy for American politics.
“The degree to which this is immersed in our politics, I think, is deeply unhealthy.”
Listen at 1:09:46
Jonathan Last predicts an emerging bipartisan American consensus against involvement with Israel.
“we are on the cusp of an emerging bipartisan consensus that wants nothing to do with Israel in America.”
Listen at 1:10:49
Jonathan Last says Benjamin Netanyahu has alienated American support for Israel.
“Benjamin Netanyahu has lost America for Israel.”
Listen at 1:11:50
Jonathan Last says AIPAC has severely harmed American Jewish interests.
“I think AIPAC has probably hurt. The cause of American Jews very severely.”
Listen at 1:12:48
Jonathan Last says Israel is currently governed by a criminal regime.
“they are hurt by the fact that Israel is basically being run by a criminal regime at this point.”
Listen at 1:13:25
Jonathan Last says Israel’s government supports Donald Trump.
“the government of Israel is on the side of Donald Trump.”
Listen at 1:14:00
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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