Oct 6, 2026 · 1h 10m
Listen from 17:52
Listen at 17:52
Trump’s Approval Turns Midterms Into a Test of Republican Control
Wave Watch (with Doug Sosnik and Ron Brownstein)
The panel weighs whether Trump’s declining support can overcome Republican structural advantages and reshape Senate races from Alaska to Maine.
- 1Trump’s weak approval and Democratic momentum make the midterms a referendum on Republican control.
- 2Turnout, candidate quality, and voter permission could determine whether Democrats compete in traditionally Republican states.
- 3Senate outcomes may influence judicial confirmations, party control, and the trajectory toward the 2028 presidential race.
Don't miss
The panel dissects Angela Paxton’s Texas ad, asking whether it gives voters permission to support Republicans without confronting Ken Paxton’s scandals.
The brief
David Axelrod, Mike Murphy, Doug Sosnik, and Ron Brownstein assess a midterm landscape shaped by Trump’s weak approval, Democratic momentum, and Republican structural advantages.
The panel argues that Trump’s 2024 coalition may not be durable, with declining support among Hispanic, young, rural, and non-college voters complicating the turnout math.
Georgia, Ohio, and Michigan show how candidate quality and attack ads can expand the map, even where redistricting and state partisanship favor Republicans.
Texas and Maine become tests of “permission structures”: can Angela Paxton and Susan Collins give voters enough room to split from their usual party choices?
The closing argument is blunt: these races will largely judge Trump and Republican control, with consequences for the Senate, confirmations, and 2028.
What was said on this episode
35 statements · 12 positive · 12 negative · 3 mixed · 8 neutral
Inflation will politically harm Trump after the election.
“Because inflation is coming for him.”
Listen at 2:47
Redistricting has reduced the number of competitive seats.
“there's just not as much in play due to redistricting.”
Listen at 5:21
Voters are currently negative on the economy by a three-to-one margin.
“Now they're three to one negative. on the economy”
Listen at 5:57
Economic dissatisfaction may overcome Republican resistance in some states.
“Probably not everywhere, but maybe somewhere.”
Listen at 8:02
Blaming Trump for economic pain may weaken traditional Republican voting patterns.
“Trump mean may be pretty flexible if people, like in that ILP data, blame him for the economic pain”
Listen at 15:06
Democrats are viewed favorably and Republican nominees unfavorably in five Republican states.
“in every one of those states, the Democrats' favorability is positive. And in every one of those states, the Republican nominee... favorability is negative.”
Listen at 16:59
Late negative campaign ads are less effective than early ads.
“Those spots work a lot better early than they do now.”
Listen at 17:44
Disaffected voters abstaining can significantly affect midterm outcomes.
“if you're one of those disaffected hours that can't imagine voting for a Dem, you can just like take the day off as kind of a quiet protest. And it still has a huge impact.”
Listen at 25:17
Turnout will be a major determinant of the election outcome.
“turnout is going to have a lot to it”
Listen at 26:00
Rural voters may support Republicans by less than an 80–20 margin.
“The rural thing does not look like 80-20 this year, given diesel or fertilizer.”
Listen at 26:34
Trump’s approval is deeply negative in Georgia.
“He's deeply underwater in Georgia now.”
Listen at 29:24
Jon Ossoff will boost other Democratic candidates in Georgia.
“Ossoff is going to have coattails.”
Listen at 29:33
The Ohio governor race is rapidly moving away from Republicans.
“the Ohio governor race, too, which is also slipping fast.”
Listen at 29:40
Democrats will win both major Ohio races.
“I think the Dems are going to win both races in Ohio.”
Listen at 32:31
Ohio’s auto industry is conducting widespread layoffs.
“We're laying off people like crazy.”
Listen at 32:49
Economic pain makes it difficult for culture-war issues to dominate voter concerns.
“I think it's hard to shift people's concern in a massive way to kind of culture war when they are feeling so much economic pain.”
Listen at 33:45
Vivek Ramaswamy is a poor Republican gubernatorial candidate.
“Vivek Ramaswamy for governor, the Republican is a lousy candidate.”
Listen at 34:39
The Democratic wave will outweigh Republican structural advantages in Michigan.
“I think that, again, the wave thing is going to be bigger than the bricks.”
Listen at 38:46
Democrats will have a strong overall midterm election night.
“I suspect on balance, it's still going to be a very good night for Democrats.”
Listen at 39:53
Hispanic voters have returned to roughly two-thirds Democratic support.
“Hispanic voters have basically snapped back to where they traditionally had been, about two-thirds Democrat”
Listen at 42:43
Voters’ rejection of an incumbent is a major part of election outcomes.
“rejection is so much a part of the equation now.”
Listen at 43:57
The midterm election will function as a referendum on the governing party.
“this is a referendum on the party in power.”
Listen at 44:38
The 2028 election will focus on America’s post-Trump future.
“the 2028 election is going to be about the future of America after Trump.”
Listen at 44:58
Voters will prefer a change-oriented candidate in 2028.
“the country is going to want someone who's going to vote for change, not the status quo”
Listen at 45:04
The Democratic candidate who discusses Trump least will win.
“the demo wins is going to be the one who talks the least about Trump.”
Listen at 45:24
Unless Trump recovers, Democrats have the advantage in the 2028 presidential race.
“the ball, the possession arrow points toward Democrats”
Listen at 46:10
Voters generally choose a corrective alternative rather than replicate the current leadership.
“people choose the remedy to what they have not not the replica”
Listen at 47:26
Angela Paxton’s Republican-ticket appeal may persuade some Texas voters.
“that'll have some power with some people.”
Listen at 49:53
The Texas Republican-ticket ad will fail with most voters but could sway a small segment.
“Because I think with most voters, it won't work. But we're in sliver world now.”
Listen at 51:17
The country has shifted left on healthcare and several economic issues.
“the country has moved to the left on. Health care issues has moved to the left on a number of economic issues”
Listen at 52:27
The prior threshold for Democrats among Trump disapprovers was approximately 89–90%.
“in his first term, the waterline was more like 89-90.”
Listen at 54:19
Abdul El-Sayed will perform strongly among college-educated voters.
“Abdul El-Sayed is going to do very well among college voters.”
Listen at 1:03:41
Trump is currently weak among college-educated voters.
“you shouldn't lose sight of the fact of how weak Trump is among college voters.”
Listen at 1:04:05
John Fetterman would caucus with Republicans rather than formally switch parties.
“What he would do is become an independent caucus with the Republicans.”
Listen at 1:07:01
Polls will underestimate the college-educated share of the midterm electorate.
“I suspect we're going to underestimate the percent of the electorate that are college-educated voters in this midterm.”
Listen at 1:08:14
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.