Sep 15, 2026 · 1h 6m
Trump’s midterm strategy meets scrutiny over messaging and media
Above the Fold (with Julie Pace)
The episode connects Republican campaign tactics with the stakes for press independence, election reporting, and political backlash over technology.
- 1Republicans are using culture-war and crime messaging to energize supporters while risking greater attention to candidate weaknesses.
- 2Economic promises and tariff fallout complicate efforts to keep midterm voters focused on cultural conflict rather than material concerns.
- 3Julie Pace explains how the Associated Press calls elections and defends editorial standards amid pressure from the White House.
Don't miss
Julie Pace details the reporting, data, and statistical judgment the Associated Press uses to project election winners.
The brief
The hosts and Julie Pace examine whether Republicans can make Donald Trump the center of their midterm strategy without amplifying culture-war excesses and candidate vulnerabilities.
Crime ads, attacks on James Talarico, and culture-war fights in Ohio and Michigan show how emotionally potent messages can force opponents onto defense while displacing economic arguments.
The discussion turns to tariffs, Trump’s proposed $5,000 payment, and whether advisers can redirect a political message shaped by economic frustration and presidential promises.
Pace explains how the Associated Press combines precinct reporting, county data, early and mail voting information, and statistical modeling to project election winners.
The episode closes on the AP’s dispute with the White House over geographic names and the political backlash surrounding AI, data centers, jobs, energy, and water.
What was said on this episode
31 statements · 12 positive · 12 negative · 2 mixed · 5 neutral
Mike Murphy judges the Republican convention strategy ineffective.
“So I don't think it's a good strategy.”
Listen at 5:04
Julie Pace says Republicans cannot sideline Trump despite his negative effects.
“I don't think you can choose to keep him on the sidelines knowing, you know, what that alternative is for you.”
Listen at 8:22
David Axelrod alleges the convention protest was staged to benefit J.D. Vance.
“I think this was a big setup to give J.D. Vance a chance to Trump the guy and look like he can hack it in that Trump world of trolling protesters and so on”
Listen at 12:13
Mike Murphy estimates an 80% chance the convention protest was staged.
“I think there's a 20% chance it was real. Eighty percent, I'm with the Chicago theory. It's a fix.”
Listen at 13:05
Julie Pace assesses J.D. Vance as skilled during confrontational political moments.
“I think Vance is, though, quite adept in these moments.”
Listen at 18:55
Julie Pace says Vance cannot rely solely on Trump’s base for future advancement.
“he can't just be the Trump base that's going to carry him forward.”
Listen at 19:19
Trump’s super PAC fund has reached $400 million.
“And now they've got 400. million in that fund.”
Listen at 20:56
Mike Murphy says advertising struggles against voters’ desire to punish Trump economically.
“Hard to do when there's a strong, natural magnetic field of something people want to do, which in this election is scream at Trump on the economic stuff.”
Listen at 22:31
Julie Pace says Republican crime and immigration messaging will not change the national political trend.
“But I don't think that's going to change the overall national trend.”
Listen at 25:54
Julie Pace says campaign narratives can unexpectedly affect election outcomes.
“Sometimes you see a narrative take hold and it really has a surprising effect on a race.”
Listen at 27:48
Mike Murphy predicts James Talarico will become highly prominent in Texas politics.
“Tallarico is going to get really famous, already is in Texas.”
Listen at 28:42
Mike Murphy judges Trump’s $5,000 payment proposal desperate.
“And it stinks of desperation.”
Listen at 32:49
Julie Pace says Trump’s war and tariff policies were deliberate choices affecting the economy.
“the war was a choice, right? Tariffs were a choice.”
Listen at 33:25
Mike Murphy says Trump’s perceived unseriousness weakens his promises’ political impact.
“he has no weight of seriousness to him, which means these things don't have a grip.”
Listen at 35:12
Mike Murphy says Trump performs better attacking from outside office than governing.
“He's always better on the outside attacking in. When he's in office, he loses elections.”
Listen at 36:27
Mike Murphy says Republicans are using national figures to aid Mike Rogers in Michigan.
“they're now deploying the national voices to try to pick these localized fights because Mike Rogers is behind and they think this might help them.”
Listen at 39:33
Mike Murphy predicts the Michigan candidate will win amid anti-Trump sentiment.
“I still think he's going to win generically because it's more about punishing Trump”
Listen at 41:15
Julie Pace says AP’s primary election-calling role is accuracy.
“our role is, one, to call the races accurately above all else.”
Listen at 43:41
Julie Pace says AP election calls combine reporting with sophisticated modeling.
“there is quite a sophisticated kind of model that goes on top of all of that.”
Listen at 45:20
Julie Pace says the AP won its lawsuit over the Gulf naming dispute.
“We ended up having to file a lawsuit, which we won.”
Listen at 46:52
Julie Pace says AP chooses geographic names for broad global understanding.
“What's the name, the phrase, the term that's going to be understood by the broadest global audience possible?”
Listen at 47:52
Mike Murphy assesses Adam Hamilton’s Kansas Senate campaign as competitive but difficult.
“it's an uphill battle, but that looks to me like a perfect storm of a Democrat candidate in the right time scampering uphill.”
Listen at 52:41
Julie Pace predicts Trump allies will reposition quickly in early 2027.
“You're going to see this move very quickly as we get into the early parts of 27.”
Listen at 54:28
Mike Murphy predicts AI uncompetitiveness would make the United States a second-rate power.
“if we're uncompetitive in AI, we will be a second rate power in 20 years.”
Listen at 57:29
David Axelrod says AI requires regulation alongside continued development.
“but you also have to have some regulation.”
Listen at 58:07
David Axelrod says voters have not yet focused on catastrophic AI risks.
“I don't think we've gotten there yet.”
Listen at 58:32
Julie Pace says politicians avoid firm AI positions because the issue may evolve unpredictably.
“I think there's sort of an aversion politically to taking out a strong stand because you don't know how this issue is going to look in a year or five years from now.”
Listen at 59:11
Mike Murphy says rapidly self-improving AI systems require regulation.
“So there's got to be some regulation on this”
Listen at 59:59
Mike Murphy predicts data-center and AI politics will become major presidential issues.
“this is the beginning of something that's going to get huge in the presidential race, I think.”
Listen at 1:00:35
Mike Murphy says Western democratic values should dominate the world’s strongest AI.
“we have a national interest in having the dominant, strongest AI in the world have American, Western, Democratic values, not Eastern Chinese. totalitarian values”
Listen at 1:02:33
Julie Pace says the AP is well positioned for current media changes.
“we're actually quite well positioned because of the ways we've had to evolve throughout our history.”
Listen at 1:03:43
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.