Sep 9, 2026 · 18 min
Housing data needs a tougher year-over-year reality check
The important context for year-over-year data
Unusual 2025 comparisons, Labor Day timing, inventory, and mortgage rates can make 2026 housing data look worse than the underlying trend.
- 1Difficult 2025 comparisons and Labor Day timing distort 2026 existing-home-sales readings.
- 2Elevated mortgage rates are slowing activity without, by themselves, signaling an imminent housing crash.
- 3Price cuts, inventory, and mortgage spreads offer a clearer read on demand than headline sales changes.
Don't miss
Logan Mohtashami explains why Labor Day timing can make housing activity and inventory look temporarily weaker than they are.
The brief
Sarah Wheeler and Logan Mohtashami examine why 2026 existing-home-sales data cannot be read cleanly against unusual 2025 comparisons.
Mohtashami argues that seasonal timing, supply, demand, and mortgage-rate movements matter more than a doom-focused reading of year-over-year changes.
Labor Day creates a particularly difficult comparison, temporarily distorting total activity and inventory readings just as analysts assess market momentum.
The discussion links price cuts and mortgage spreads to rates above roughly 6.6%, which are restraining activity without implying a housing crash.
Mohtashami expects existing-home sales to remain below four million monthly prints, then previews how inflation, oil, and diesel prices could shape the next discussion.
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