Published Wed, Oct 28, 2026 · Covers Tue, Oct 27, 2026

A 7% yield warning comes with a six-month Treasury bull case

The big picture

Bonds Have Two Clocks A Treasury rally need not mean the inflation skeptics have surrendered. After Monday’s debate over bond value versus yield momentum, Vincent Deluard now puts both arguments inside one outlook: long-term Treasuries look attractive over the next six months, even though long-term yields could eventually reach 6–7%. His near-term case rests on liquidity, potentially reduced issuance and money seeking shelter from an equity bear market—not compelling bond valuations. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), up 2% this week, is moving with that tactical case. His longer-run warning rests on persistent inflation plus real growth and a term premium; it is not a dated prediction that yields reach those levels this year.

… treasury yields and nominal growth or the difference between U .S. yields and what you can get abroad, it's not that great. But since I expect a bear market in stocks, money's got to go somewhere. Liquidity is pretty good. So for the next six months, yeah, long-term treasuries are probably a good place to be.
Vincent Deluard · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 2026-10-27 · Are Equities Entering a Bear Market? · Episode
Treasury prices support the tactical caseTLT rose 2% this week; a bond-fund gain represents rising bond prices, not rising yields.
Prices by TradingView

The odds behind TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

PodLume's reading of the prediction markets, not a forecast.

Earlier coverage: 2026-10-26: AI’s next bill is maintenance, not just construction

Evidence: 2 expert calls
  • Vincent Deluard · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 2026-10-27 · long Long-dated Treasuries“So for the next six months, yeah, long-term treasuries are probably a good place to be.” Episode
  • Vincent Deluard · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 2026-10-27 · yes Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?“We could very easily 6%, 7% on long-term yields.” Episode

Oil’s Risk Is Escalating The political relief oil bears needed in Sunday’s briefing now faces a sharper escalation argument: Axios reports that the Iran-war risk premium is pushing oil prices back toward levels seen earlier this year. The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is up 4% this week through Tuesday, showing that the latest move favors the bulls. Ian Dunlap asks whether Brent could stay above $113–$114 if the war continues, linking sustained energy costs to broader inflation. Vincent Deluard goes further, arguing that tight inventories could amplify a disruption enough to make $200 oil possible. These are different conditional risks—persistent expensive oil versus an extreme escalation—not competing base-case price forecasts, and neither establishes that the worst outcome is likely.

… and the price of oil. That has weakened a little bit lately. We've seen a couple of days when we've seen oil up, treasury is down. Sorry, yields down, price is up. But still, if we see a total complete... It's not out of the realm of possibility to see $200 oil. We have the SPR is empty. All the inventories, the shadow inventories that China had are gone.
Vincent Deluard · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 2026-10-27 · The Tail Risk of an Iran Escalation · Episode
The latest oil move favors the bullsBNO tracks Brent futures; its share price is not a dollar-per-barrel oil quotation.
Prices by TradingView

Earlier coverage: 2026-10-25: A 50% chip-stock downside case challenges the buy-the-dip chorus

Evidence: 2 expert calls · 1 news article
  • Vincent Deluard · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 2026-10-27 · long Crude oil“It's not out of the realm of possibility to see $200 oil.” Episode
  • Ian Dunlap · Market Mondays · 2026-10-27 · long Crude oil“if this war does not cease do we see a chance of us staying above 113 or 114 for brent oil” Episode
  • The oil risk premium shoots up · Axios · 2026-10-26

The day in signals

Rivian’s Conversation Outruns Conviction Rivian (RIVN) appears across eight shows in PodLume Trends, but only three experts have taken a side over the past month—all bullish. The shares have fallen 24% over that month, a stark contrast with the positive podcast tone. In his October 15 call, Hamid Moghadam grounded his optimism in strong demand for premium R2 vehicles and improving deliveries, while acknowledging executive departures: a business argument the stock has yet to reward.

Prices by TradingView
Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE on PodLume
Well, it's definitely not a good thing when people are like giving up on a company. Again, like what we know on the surface level is that Rivian continues to get better as a company. Their R2 product has been very well received to the point where they're only selling the most premium version of the vehicle, which is the $60 ,000 vehicle. And they …
Hamid Moghadam · Buy Hold Rant - Stocks and Investing · 2026-10-15 · Listener questions: Micron, Rivian, and Bumble · Episode
Evidence: 3 expert calls
  • Hamid Moghadam · Buy Hold Rant - Stocks and Investing · 2026-10-15 · long Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE“Rivian continues to get better as a company.” Episode
  • Charles Lemonides · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 2026-10-12 · long Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE“the rivians three years from now we're going to be pretty darn fully self-driving” Episode
  • Dustin Alper · Buy Hold Rant - Stocks and Investing · 2026-10-07 · long Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE“you don't need to get in at the best price. You just want to get in at what is a good price. And I think right now it happens to be a great price” Episode

Grasso Turns Tactical Bull Steve Grasso has shifted from bearish on US equities to expecting a tradable bottom by month-end, rather than declaring the underlying financing worries resolved. His reasoning is concrete: relief in bond yields and CoreWeave (CRWV) reclaiming technical support on decent volume. With the S&P 500 tracker SPY flat over the week, this is a call for a near-term turn, not confirmation of a sustained advance.

… levels that I thought it would find support at. But now it's right back to the levels that should have been support and in a pretty meaningful way on decent volume. So I think to answer your question specifically, yeah, I think you're setting up for a bit of a tradable bottom into month end which is fast approaching, Michael, as you know.
Steve Grasso · CNBC's "Fast Money" · 2026-10-27 · Market Open and AI Financing Concerns · Episode
Evidence: 1 expert call
  • Steve Grasso · CNBC's "Fast Money" · 2026-10-27 · long US stock market“I think you're setting up for a bit of a tradable bottom into month end” Episode

Michigan’s Win Could Cost A Democratic Michigan Senate victory is the shared call across four shows today, but the strongest argument is about the national wave rather than the candidate. On Hacks On Tap, Steve Shale expects that wave probably to carry Abdul El-Sayed over the line despite significant underperformance. His caveat matters beyond Michigan: money needed to defend the race could cost Democrats an opportunity elsewhere.

… also been, you know, I mean, I worked against Rick Scott twice in Republican wave years and watch my candidates who had higher fave, unfave, better on all the metrics lose in just a wave year. And so, I mean, history tells me in the end, El Sayed probably wins this thing because the wave carries him over the top but I suspect it'll be a significant underperformance, and I also suspect there's a decent chance that the money we've got to spend here may cost us something else down …
Steve Shale · Hacks On Tap · 2026-10-27 · Michigan Forecast and Wave Election Effects · Episode
Evidence: 2 expert calls
  • Steve Shale · Hacks On Tap · 2026-10-27 · yes Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?“history tells me in the end, El Sayed probably wins this thing because the wave carries him over the top” Episode
  • Tim Miller · The Bulwark Daily · 2026-10-27 · yes Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?“I'm pretty sure it's going to happen.” Episode

PodLume Signals is a structured record of opinions expressed on podcasts, attributed to the speaker who voiced them. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and no statement here is verified for accuracy. Outcome verdicts are a mechanical comparison of an instrument's price move against a benchmark over a fixed window and say nothing about future performance.

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