markets
Fed, rates & bonds
151 experts · 233 calls
- 113 bullish
- 111 bearish
- 9 mixed
Fed hike doubts clash with market as yield warnings grow
Net −0.15 · ▲ 0.04 vs a week ago
Why
Across 153 experts and 238 votes, high-yield credit is bearish, while calls on an October Fed hold are nearly split despite an 88% market YES price.
All five experts back a 6% Treasury yield before 2027 versus a 6% market YES price; Jesse Felder cited a technical target, while Daveed Rosenberg said that yield was needed to prevent losses.
On inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, 11 experts say no and eight say yes against a 16% market YES price; Jim Bianco expects inflation around 3%.
- “So we're stuck at three ish percent inflation.”Jim Bianco · Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart · 2026-10-20 · Episode
As of 2026-10-21.
- Long-dated Treasuries106 experts · 44↑ 56↓
- Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?19 experts · 8↑ 11↓
- High-yield credit16 experts · 5↑ 10↓
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?14 experts · 6↑ 7↓
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?12 experts · 12↑ 0↓