Howell’s 6% yield case challenges the election relief rally

Gridlock Meets Growth Divided government may help bonds, but it does not settle the argument over how high yields belong. Sunday’s caution about chasing the rally now has a sharper challenge: Michael Howell puts long-bond yields around 5.5%–6%, allowing for the term premium, unless the economy changes direction radically. His back-of-the-envelope reasoning ties yields to underlying nominal growth, even as the 30-year Treasury yield had fallen 31 basis points over the month through November 3. Michael Schumacher sees the opposite near-term force: less expansive fiscal policy under divided government could support long-bond prices over the next couple of months. The disagreement is whether fiscal restraint can outweigh the economy’s nominal growth rate.

Earlier coverage: 2026-11-01: Lance Roberts turns cautious on bonds after the rally

Relief Needs Chip Confirmation The new question is whether an election rally can reclaim the highs without semiconductor participation. Since yesterday’s discussion of results replacing calendar bets, the rally has arrived: AP reports that the S&P 500 rose about 1.6% Wednesday as oil prices and bond yields eased. Today’s new call from Michael Santoli puts a condition on that relief: he finds the move constructive but doubts a sustained push beyond previous highs without chips. Joe Terranova’s new bearish turn on oil supplies the more optimistic macro reading—he sees the election as a setback for inflation and greater political support for the Fed’s fight against it. Unlike yesterday’s setup, the disagreement now concerns the rally in hand: cheaper energy supports it, but missing chip leadership may limit its reach.

Earlier coverage: 2026-11-03: Marvell falls 29%; Cramer flips bullish with a trillion-dollar ambition · 2026-11-02: Apple’s escape from AI spending fears costs 36 times earnings

Oil Bulls Resist Relief Brent’s 13% weekly decline through November 3 runs against a 62% bullish expert lean over the past month. Warren Pies supplies the uncomfortable counterargument to election relief: he expects crude to stay elevated and rise, even as unusually high refining margins eventually normalize through demand destruction and refiners redirecting production. Lower refining margins, in his argument, need not mean cheaper crude.

Off-Grid Beats Election Anxiety LandBridge (LB) enters PodLume’s call history with a bullish case against a stock down 16% this week. Leo Nelissen argues that its land, cheap power and cooling water make off-grid data-center projects too useful to scrap, despite the political concerns he says investors are pricing in. His first recorded call rests on infrastructure bottlenecks, not a prediction that enthusiasm for every AI supplier returns.

Tech Bulls Set A Target The tech rebound argument has moved beyond yesterday’s IPO catalyst: bullish Nasdaq calls appeared on seven shows this period. Tom Lee offers the clearest target, expecting the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) to rally at least 15% by year-end because election, oil and AI-financing worries have produced an oversold setup resembling an earlier reversal. QQQ remains down 5% this week, leaving substantial distance between that argument and the price.

Earlier coverage: 2026-11-03: Marvell falls 29%; Cramer flips bullish with a trillion-dollar ambition